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Common Business Cycles and Volatilities in US States and MSAs: The Role of Economic Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    () (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Jun Ma

    () (Department of Economics, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA)

  • Marian Risse

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany)

  • Mark E. Wohar

    () (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK)

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in explaining time-varying co-movements in economic activity and volatility of 48 US states and 51 largest MSAs. In this regard, we, first, estimate a dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings and stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV). Then, in the second step, we use a quantile-on-quantile (QQ) predictive regression model to capture the effect of EPU on the common factor and stochastic volatility derived from the DFM-TV-SV for the states and MSAs. Our results show that EPU has a significant negative effect on the common economic activity of both the states and MASs, and it also significantly increases the common volatility. However, the impact of uncertainty varies substantially depending on the initial states (quantiles) of both common output or volatility and EPU. Thus, our results tend to suggest that policy design should be state-dependent

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Jun Ma & Marian Risse & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Common Business Cycles and Volatilities in US States and MSAs: The Role of Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 201766, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201766
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on a Panel of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate, Trade and Financial Channels," Working Papers 201857, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Spillovers across Macroeconomic, Financial and Real Estate Uncertainties: A Time-Varying Approach," Working Papers 201944, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    4. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2018. "Forecasting Stock Market (Realized) Volatility in the United Kingdom: Is There a Role for Economic Inequality?," Working Papers 201880, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The Role of Real Estate Uncertainty in Predicting US Home Sales Growth: Evidence from a Quantiles-Based Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers 201936, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    7. Qiang Ji & Rangan Gupta & Festus Victor Bekun & Mehmet Balcilar, 2018. "Spillover of Mortgage Default Risks in the United States: Evidence from Metropolitan Statistical Areas and States," Working Papers 201850, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.

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    Keywords

    Common Business Cycles; Common Stochastic Volatility; Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Models; Quantile-on-Quantile Regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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