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Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area?

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  • Valentina Colombo

    () (University of Padova)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates with a number of Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) jointly with a set of standard indicators of aggregate price and the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas. According to our SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the European industrial production and prices of -0.12% and -0.06%, respectively. The contribution of the US uncertainty shock on the European aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an Euro area-specific uncertainty shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Colombo, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0160, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0160
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    3. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
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    5. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    6. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2009. "Uncertain Times, uncertain measures," Working Papers tecipa-352, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    8. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2008. "Should the Euro Area Be Run as a Closed Economy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 138-145, May.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    10. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Nicolas Groshenny, 2013. "Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics: An Analysis of Post-WWII U.S. Recessions," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0166, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; US-Euro area spillovers; Structural Vector Autoregressions.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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