Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area?
We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates with a number of Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) jointly with a set of standard indicators of aggregate price and the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas. According to our SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the European industrial production and prices of -0.12% and -0.06%, respectively. The contribution of the US uncertainty shock on the European aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an Euro area-specific uncertainty shock.
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