IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises

  • Scotti, Chiara

I construct two daily, real-time, real activity indexes for the United States, Euro area, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan: (i) a surprise index that summarizes recent economic data surprises and measures optimism/pessimism about the state of the economy, and (ii) an uncertainty index that measures uncertainty related to the state of the economy. The surprise index preserves the properties of the underlying series in affecting asset prices, with the advantage of being a parsimonious summary measure of real-activity surprises. For the United States, the real-activity uncertainty index is compared to other proxies commonly used to measure uncertainty to show that when uncertainty is strictly related to real activity, it has a potentially milder impact on economic activity than when it also relates to the financial sector.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2013/1093/default.htm
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2013/1093/ifdp1093.pdf
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/ifdp/2013/files/ifdp1093r.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 1093.

as
in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision: 20 May 2016
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1093
Contact details of provider: Postal:
20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551

Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1565, European Central Bank.
  2. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1762R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2011.
  3. Koopman, Siem Jan & Harvey, Andrew, 2003. "Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1317-1333, May.
  4. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  6. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
  8. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Chiara Scotti & S.Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & University of Maryland, 2006. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 387, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
  12. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek & Cristina Fuentes Albero & Dario Caldara, 2013. "On the Identification of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
  14. Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg H. Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to Their Asset Price Impact?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 874, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Apr 2015.
  16. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2009. "Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 7343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. repec:hal:journl:peer-00844811 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 133-160, 01.
  20. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
  21. repec:hal:journl:hal-00638009 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.