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Nowcasting

  • Martha Banbura
  • Domenico Giannone
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

Economists have imperfect knowledge of the present state of the economy and even of the recent past. Many key statistics are released with a long delay and they are subsequently revised. As a consequence, unlike weather forecasters, who know what is the weather today and only have to predict the weather tomorrow, economists have to forecast the present and even the recent past. The problem of predicting the present, the very near future and the very recent past is labelled as nowcasting and is the subject of this paper.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/57648/1/2010-021-BANBURA-GIANNONE-REICHLIN-nowcasting.pdf
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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2010-021.

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Length: 36 p.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/57648
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  1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
  3. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2011. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," MPRA Paper 32941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
  10. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The role of asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper 2007/09, Norges Bank.
  11. Chiara Scotti & S.Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & University of Maryland, 2006. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 387, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
  13. Bańbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346.
  14. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
  16. Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-20, CIRANO.
  17. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Working Papers 0807, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  18. Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "Maximum likelihood estimation of factor models on data sets with arbitrary pattern of missing data," Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank.
  19. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity In Real Time: The Role Of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 90-97, October.
  20. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
  21. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  22. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, June.
  23. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  24. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
  25. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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