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Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth

Author

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  • Maximo Camacho

    (Universidad de Murcia, Spain)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

Abstract

We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this dataset we show that our simple factor model algorithm, which uses an easy-to-replicate methodology, is able to forecast the euro area GDP growth as well as professional forecasters who can combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide examples showing how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:25:y:2010:i:4:p:663-694
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.1174
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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