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Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Tommaso Proietti

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università di Udine)

  • Filippo Moauro

    (ISTAT, Rome)

Abstract

The paper estimates an index of coincident economic indicators for the U.S. economy using time series with different frequencies of observation (monthly and quarterly, possibly with missing values). The model considered is the dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson, specified in the logarithms of the original variables and at the monthly frequency, which poses a problem of temporal aggregation with a nonlinear observational constraint when quarterly time series are included. Our main methodological contribution is to provide an exact solution to this problem, that hinges on conditional mode estimation by extended Kalman filtering and smoothing. On the empirical side the contribution of the paper is to provide monthly estimates of quarterly indicators, among which Gross Domestic Product, that are consistent with the quarterly totals.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0401003
    Note: Type of Document - ; prepared on WinXP; pages: 20; figures: 2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    2. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    4. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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