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A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series

  • Roberto S. Mariano

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA and School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University, Singapore)

  • Yasutomo Murasawa

    (College of Economics, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531, Japan)

Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock-Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information contained in quarterly indicators such as real GDP. Second, they lack economic interpretation; hence the heights of peaks and the depths of troughs depend on the choice of an index. This paper extends the Stock-Watson coincident index by applying maximum likelihood factor analysis to a mixed-frequency series of quarterly real GDP and monthly coincident business cycle indicators. The resulting index is related to latent monthly real GDP. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.695
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2003-v18.4/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 427-443

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:18:y:2003:i:4:p:427-443
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  1. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
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