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Citations for "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series"

by Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa

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  1. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47, 04.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-time Estimates of the Macro Economy," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
  5. Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
  7. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Paper 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, . "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  9. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 896, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Peter Fuleky & Carl, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 2013-5, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  11. Frale, Cecilia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
  13. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Lubos Ruzicka & Peter Toth, 2010. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2010/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  14. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 7883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  17. Troy D. Matheson, 2013. "New indicators for tracking growth in real time," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 51-71.
  18. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  19. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
  20. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  21. Cecilia Frale & Stefano Grassi & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2013. "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries," CEIS Research Paper 287, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 01 Oct 2013.
  22. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2012. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
  23. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Teresa Leal & Diego Pedregal & Javier Pérez, 2011. "Short-term monitoring of the Spanish government balance," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 97-119, March.
  25. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  26. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(4), pages 299-326.
  27. Diez de los Rios, Antonio & Sentana, Enrique, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  29. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:20:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. repec:crs:ecosta:es395-396b is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Paul Viefers & Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Maximilian Podstawski, 2014. "Filtering German Economic Conditions from a Large Dataset: The New DIW Economic Barometer," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1414, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  32. Gonzalo Echavarría M. & Wildo González P, 2011. "Un Modelo de Factores Dinámicos de Pequeña Escala para el Imacec," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 109-118, August.
  33. Cecilia Frale & Libero Monteforte, 2011. "FaMIDAS: A Mixed Frequency Factor Model with MIDAS structure," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 788, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  34. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009827, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  35. repec:dgr:uvatin:20120042 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The role of asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper 2007/09, Norges Bank.
  37. Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2008. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?," Working Paper Series 0937, European Central Bank.
  38. Agne Reklaite, 2011. "Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, July.
  39. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
  40. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2009. "Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0912, Banco de Espa�a.
  41. Cecilia Frale, Serena Teobaldo, Marco Cacciotti, Alessandra Caretta, 2013. "A Quarterly Measure Of Potential Output In The New European Fiscal Framework," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - Italian Review of Economics, Demography and Statistics, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 0(2), pages 181-197, April-Jun.
  42. Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O., 2008. "Why calculate a business sentiment indicator for services?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 21-30, Autumn.
  43. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  44. Máximo Camacho & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2014. "Real-time forecasting us GDP from small-scale factor models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1425, Banco de Espa�a.
  45. Marco Cacciotti & Cecilia Frale & Serena Teobaldo, 2013. "A new methodology for a quarterly measure of the output gap," Working Papers 6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  46. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
  47. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011042 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
  49. Troy Matheson, 2013. "The Global Financial Crisis; An Anatomy of Global Growth," IMF Working Papers 13/76, International Monetary Fund.
  50. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Lucian-Liviu Albu & Vasile Dinu, 2009. "How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 675-683, November.
  53. Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Structural Models in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 10/56, International Monetary Fund.
  54. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
  56. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001. "Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  57. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
  58. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  59. Rocío Elizondo, 2012. "Monthly GDP estimates based on the IGAE," Working Papers 2012-11, Banco de México.
  60. Arias , Maria A. & Gascon, Charles S. & Rapach, David E., 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  61. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Victor, 2013. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: A new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," FZID Discussion Papers 64-2013, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  63. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2014. "Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 898-915, December.
  64. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
  65. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0807, Banco de Espa�a.
  66. Conefrey, Thomas & Liebermann, Joelle, 2013. "A Monthly Business Cycle Indicator for Ireland," Economic Letters 03/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  67. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  68. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
  69. Sieds, 2013. "Complete Volume LXVII n.2 2013," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - Italian Review of Economics, Demography and Statistics, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 0(2), pages 1-197, April-Jun.
  70. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles without Assuming a One-factor Model," Working Papers 22-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
  71. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  72. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
  73. Maximo Camacho & Marcos Dal Bianco & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Working Papers 1201, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  74. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  75. Leiva-Leon Danilo, 2014. "Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 24, December.
  76. repec:dgr:uvatin:20030069 is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo Group Munich.
  78. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
  79. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Makroökonomische Prognosen mit gemischten Frequenzen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
  80. repec:dgr:uvatin:20140105 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Anthony S. Tay, 2007. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Output Growth," Development Economics Working Papers 22482, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  82. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:5:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  83. Marcos Dal Bianco & Jaime Martinez-Martín & Maximo Camacho, 2013. "Short-Run Forecasting of Argentine GDP Growth," Working Papers 1314, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  84. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
  85. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2009. "Do coincident indicators have one-factor structure?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 339-365, May.
  86. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006. "Dynamic factor analysis with non-linear temporal aggregation constraints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300.
  87. Christian Schumacher, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
  88. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
  89. Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Extraction of Common Signal from Series with Different Frequency," Econometrics 0502011, EconWPA.
  90. Cecilia Frale, . "Do Surveys Help in Macroeconomic Variables Disaggregation and Estimation?," Working Papers wp2008-2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  91. repec:dgr:uvatin:2003069 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. Peter Fuleky & Carl Bonham, 2010. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 2010-17R1, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa, revised Jul 2013.
  93. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Marie Adanero-Donderis, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
  94. Keeney, Mary & Kennedy, Bernard & Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "The value of hard and soft data for short-term forecasting of GDP," Economic Letters 11/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
  95. repec:dgr:uvatin:2012042 is not listed on IDEAS
  96. Qian, Hang, 2012. "A Flexible State Space Model and its Applications," MPRA Paper 38455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  97. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  98. Byeongchan Seong & Sung K. Ahn & Peter Zadrozny, 2007. "Cointegration Analysis with Mixed-Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 1939, CESifo Group Munich.
  99. repec:dgr:uvatin:20140113 is not listed on IDEAS
  100. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
  101. Jens Hogrefe, 2008. "Forecasting data revisions of GDP: a mixed frequency approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 271-296, August.
  102. Klaus Abberger & Boriss Siliverstovs & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2014. "The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014: A Composite Leading Indicator for the Swiss Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 14-353, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  103. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  104. Björn Roye, 2014. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany," Empirica, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 101-126, February.
  105. Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  106. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1416, Banco de Espa�a.
  107. Camacho, Maximo, 2013. "Mixed-frequency VAR models with Markov-switching dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 369-373.
  108. Claudia FORONI & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/07, European University Institute.
  109. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
  110. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalacio & Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura, 2009. "Um Indicador Coincidente e Antecedente da Atividade Econômica Brasileira," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 695, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  111. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2002. "Unobserved Leading and Coincident Common Factors in the Post-War U.S. Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  112. Éric Dubois, 2006. "Présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9.
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