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FaMIDAS: A Mixed Frequency Factor Model with MIDAS structure

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia Frale

    (MEF-Ministry of the Economy and Finance-Italy, Treasury Department)

  • Libero Monteforte

    (Bank of Italy and MEF-Ministry of the Economy and Finance-Italy, Treasury Department)

Abstract

In this paper a dynamic factor model with mixed frequency is proposed (FaMIDAS), where the past observations of high frequency indicators are used following the MIDAS approach. This structure is able to represent with richer dynamics the information content of the economic indicators and produces smoothed factors and forecasts. In addition, the Kalman filter is applied, which is particularly suited for dealing with unbalanced data set and revisions in the preliminary data. In the empirical application for the Italian quarterly GDP the short-term forecasting performance is evaluated against other mixed frequency models in a pseudo-real time experiment, also allowing for pooled forecast from factor models.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Frale & Libero Monteforte, 2011. "FaMIDAS: A Mixed Frequency Factor Model with MIDAS structure," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 788, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_788_11
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    3. Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan & Li, Mengheng, 2019. "Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1735-1747.
    4. Elena Andreou & Patrick Gagliardini & Eric Ghysels & Mirco Rubin, 2016. "Is Industrial Production Still the Dominant Factor for the US Economy?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-11, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Denisa BANULESCU-RADU & Laurent FERRARA & Clément MARSILLI, 2019. "Prévoir la volatilité d’un actif financier à l’aide d’un modèle à mélange de fréquences," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2710, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Michael Anthonisz, 2023. "Nowcasting Key Australian Macroeconomic Variables," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 371-380, September.
    7. Filippo Maria Pericoli & Roberto Galli & Cecilia Frale & Stefania Pozzuoli, 2013. "Bank lending in a cointegrated VAR model," Working Papers 8, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    8. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Bertrand Candelon & Sébastien Laurent, 2016. "Do We Need High Frequency Data to Forecast Variances?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 135-174.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mixed frequency models; dynamic factor models; MIDAS; forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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