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Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets - a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise

  • Karim Barhoumi
  • Szilard Benk
  • Riccardo Cristadoro
  • Ard Den Reijer
  • Audrone Jakaitiene
  • Piotr Jelonek
  • António Rua
  • Gerhard Rünstler
  • Karsten Ruth
  • Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best. JEL Classification: E37, C53.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 84.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20080084
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  1. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 0633, European Central Bank.
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    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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