Survey data as coincident or leading indicators
In this paper we propose a monthly measure for the euro area gross domestic product (GDP) based on a small-scale factor model for mixed-frequency data, featuring two factors: the first is driven by hard data, whereas the second captures the contribution of survey variables as coincident indicators. Within this framework we evaluate both the in-sample contribution of the second survey-based factor, and the short-term forecasting performance of the model in a pseudo-real-time experiment. We find that the survey-based factor plays a significant role for two components of GDP: industrial value added and exports. Moreover, the two-factor model outperforms in terms of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy the traditional autoregressive distributed lags (ADL) specifications and the single-factor model, with few exceptions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007.
"New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Veronese, Giovanni, 2006. "New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 5633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004.
"Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints,"
- Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006. "Dynamic factor analysis with non-linear temporal aggregation constraints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300.
- Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale, 2011.
"New proposals for the quantification of qualitative survey data,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 393-408, July.
- Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale, 2007. "New proposals for the quantification of qualitative survey data," CEIS Research Paper 98, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Testing for GARCH effects: a one-sided approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 97-127, June.
- Andrew Harvey & Chia-Hui Chung, 2000. "Estimating the underlying change in unemployment in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(3), pages 303-309.
- Harvey, Andrew & Proietti, Tommaso (ed.), 2005. "Readings in Unobserved Components Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199278695, May.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005.
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006.
"Are more data always better for factor analysis?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
- Filippo Moauro & Giovanni Savio, 2005. "Temporal disaggregation using multivariate structural time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 214-234, 07.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1983.
"A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-73, April.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:1-2:p:109-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.