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Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data

  • Giannone, Domenico
  • Reichlin, Lucrezia
  • Small, David

A formal method is developed for evaluating the marginal impact that intra-monthly data releases have on current-quarter forecasts (nowcasts) of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The method can track the real-time flow of the type of information monitored by central banks because it can handle large data sets with staggered data-release dates. Each time new data are released, the nowcasts are updated on the basis of progressively larger data sets that, reflecting the unsynchronized data-release dates, have a "jagged edge" across the most recent months.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 665-676

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:665-676
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