IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_436_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Altissimo

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department and CEPR)

  • Antonio Bassanetti

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Riccardo Cristadoro

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Mario Forni

    (Universit� di Modena and CEPR)

  • Marco Lippi

    (Universit� di Roma, La Sapienza and CEPR)

  • Lucrezia Reichlin

    (Universit� Libre de Bruxelles, ECARES and CEPR)

  • Giovanni Veronese

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

This paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of sources. We use the information of this large panel to obtain an indicator which has three characteristics: (i) it provides real time information on monthly coincident activity since it is updated as new information become available in a non-synchronous way; (ii) it is cleaned from noise originated from measurement error and idiosyncratic national and sectoral dynamics; (iii) it is cleaned from seasonal and short-run dynamics through a �lter that requires very little revision at the end of the sample. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure and exploits all information on dynamic cross-correlations. As a byproduct of our analysis, we provide a characterization of the commonality and dynamic relations of the series in the data set with respect to the coincident indicator and a dating of the euro area cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_436_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2001/2001-0436/tema_436_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krusell, Per & Kuruscu, Burhanettin & Smith, Anthony Jr., 2002. "Equilibrium Welfare and Government Policy with Quasi-geometric Discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 42-72, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sorger, Gerhard, 2004. "Consistent planning under quasi-geometric discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-129, September.
    2. Maria Arvaniti & Chandra K. Krishnamurthy & Anne-Sophie Crépin, 2019. "Time-consistent resource management with regime shifts," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/329, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2011. "Time-consistent Fiscal Policy under Heterogeneity: Conflicting or Common Interests?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3444, CESifo.
    4. Ryoji Ohdoi & Koichi Futagami, 2021. "Welfare implications of non-unitary time discounting," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 85-115, February.
    5. Tansel, Aysit & Öztürk, Ceyhan & Erdil, Erkan, 2021. "The Impact of Body Mass Index on Growth, Schooling, Productivity, and Savings: A Cross-Country Study," GLO Discussion Paper Series 929, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Cabo, Francisco & Martín-Herrán, Guiomar & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2015. "Non-constant discounting and Ak-type growth models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 54-58.
    7. Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-596, May.
    8. Niclas Berggren, 2012. "Time for behavioral political economy? An analysis of articles in behavioral economics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 199-221, September.
    9. Lagunoff, Roger, 2009. "Dynamic stability and reform of political institutions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 569-583, November.
    10. Luttmer, Erzo G.J. & Mariotti, Thomas, 2007. "Efficiency and equilibrium when preferences are time-inconsistent," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 493-506, January.
    11. Tack Yun & Wooheon Rhee, 2004. "Implications of Quasi-Geometric Discounting on the Observable Sharpe Ratio," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
    12. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2016. "Continuous Markov equilibria with quasi-geometric discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 467-494.
    13. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    14. Azzimonti, Marina & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel & Soares, Jorge, 2009. "Distortionary taxes and public investment when government promises are not enforceable," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1662-1681, September.
    15. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Rent-seeking distortions and fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 30-46, September.
    16. Chade, Hector & Prokopovych, Pavlo & Smith, Lones, 2008. "Repeated games with present-biased preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 157-175, March.
    17. Kirill Borissov & Mikhail Pakhnin & Ronald Wendner, 2022. "General Equilibrium and Dynamic Inconsistency," CESifo Working Paper Series 9846, CESifo.
    18. Robert Reed & Karl Boulware & Ejnidu Ume, 2016. "Human Capital Investment under Quasi-Geometric Discounting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1986-1992.
    19. Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman, 2009. "Time-Inconsistency And Welfare Program Participation: Evidence From The Nlsy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1043-1077, November.
    20. Kang, Minwook, 2020. "Demand deposit contracts and bank runs with present biased preferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; dynamic factor model;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_436_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.