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Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting, with an Application to Mammography Decisions

  • Hanming Fang


    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Yang Wang


    (Department of Economics, Lafayette College)

We extend the semi-parametric estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller’s (1993) conditional choice probability (CCP) approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We illustrate the proposed estimation method with an empirical application of adult women’s decisions to undertake mammography to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the under-utilization of this preventive health care. Our results show evidence for both present bias and naivety.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 10-033.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 04 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:10-033
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  1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2004. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Industrial Organization 0406006, EconWPA.
  2. Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman, 2007. "Time-Inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY," NBER Working Papers 13375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carrillo, Juan D & Mariotti, Thomas, 2000. "Strategic Ignorance as a Self-Disciplining Device," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 529-44, July.
  4. Krusell, Per & Kuruscu, Burhanettin & Smith Jr., Anthony A, 2001. "Equilibrium Welfare and Government Policy with Quasi-Geometric Discounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Rust, J., 1991. "Estimation of dynamic Structural Models: Problems and Prospects Part I : Discrete Decision Processes," Working papers 9106, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  6. Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Levin, Jonathan, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Research Papers 1852r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  7. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro mira, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers tecipa-297, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  8. Fang, Hanming & Silverman, Dan, 2004. "On the compassion of time-limited welfare programs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1445-1470, July.
  9. Jeremy Tobacman & David Laibson, 2007. "Estimating Discount Functions with Consumption Choices over the Lifecycle," Economics Series Working Papers 341, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Alessandro Tarozzi & Aprajit Mahajan, 2011. "Time Inconsistency, Expectations and Technology Adoption: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets," Working Papers 11-14, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  11. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  12. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games," NBER Working Papers 9726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, 06.
  14. Saul Pleeter & John T. Warner, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March.
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