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Time Inconsistency, Expectations and Technology Adoption: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets

Author

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  • Alessandro Tarozzi
  • Aprajit Mahajan

Abstract

Economists have recently argued that time inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behavior, particularly among poor households. However, time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models and little is known about the fraction of inconsistent agents in the population. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents motivated by specifically collected information combined with a field intervention in rural India. We identify and estimate all time-preference parameters as well as the population fractions of time-consistent and "naive" and "sophisticated" time-inconsistent agents. We estimate that time-inconsistent agents account for more than half of the population and that "sophisticated" inconsistent agents are considerably more present-biased than their "naive" counterparts. We also examine whether there are other differences across types (e.g. in risk and cost preferences) and find that these differences are small relative to the differences in time preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Tarozzi & Aprajit Mahajan, 2011. "Time Inconsistency, Expectations and Technology Adoption: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets," Working Papers 11-14, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:11-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-596, May.
    2. James Andreoni & Michael Callen & Muhammad Karrar Hussain & Muhammad Yasir Khan & Charles Sprenger, "undated". "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1039, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Hinnosaar, Marit, 2016. "Time inconsistency and alcohol sales restrictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 108-131.
    4. Aycinena, Diego & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Rentschler, Lucas & Sprenger, Charles, 2022. "Intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 484-500.
    5. Paulina Oliva & B. Kelsey Jack & Samuel Bell & Elizabeth Mettetal & Christopher Severen, 2020. "Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Take-Up and Subsequent Investment in Zambia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 617-632, July.
    6. Schumacher, Heiner, 2016. "Insurance, self-control, and contract flexibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 220-232.
    7. Attanasio, Orazio P. & Kaufmann, Katja M., 2017. "Education choices and returns on the labor and marriage markets: Evidence from data on subjective expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 35-55.
    8. Liebenehm, S. & Waibel, H., 2018. "Really too risk averse and too impatient to escape poverty? Insights from a field experiment in West Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277480, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. James Andreoni & Michael Callen & Karrar Hussain & Muhammad Yasir Khan & Charles Sprenger, 2023. "Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1428-1477.
    10. Chowdhury, Shyamal & Smits, Joeri & Sun, Qigang, 2020. "Does Access to Microcredit Lead to Technology Adoption by Smallholder Farmers? Experimental Evidence from Rural Bangladesh," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305247, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    11. Anett John (née Hofmann), 2014. "When Commitment Fails - Evidence from a Regular Saver Product in the Philippines," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 55, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    12. Marc K. Chan, 2017. "Welfare Dependence and Self-Control: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1379-1423.
    13. Bisin, Alberto & Hyndman, Kyle, 2020. "Present-bias, procrastination and deadlines in a field experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 339-357.
    14. Pamela Giustinelli, 2016. "Group Decision Making With Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child–Parent Choice Of The High School Track," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 573-602, May.
    15. Álvarez, Begoña & Vera-Hernández, Marcos, 2013. "Exploiting subjective information to understand impoverished children's use of health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1194-1204.
    16. James Andreoni & Michael Callen & Muhammad Karrar Hussain & Muhammad Yasir Khan & Charles Sprenger, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1039, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Guilherme Lichand & Juliette Thibaud, 2020. "Parent-bias," ECON - Working Papers 369, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jun 2022.
    18. Rojas Valdes, Ruben I. & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Taylor, J. Edward, 2017. "The Dynamic Migration Game: A Structural Econometric Model and Application to Rural Mexico," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259184, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Pennesi, Daniele, 2021. "Intertemporal discrete choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 690-706.
    20. Barboni, Giorgia, 2017. "Repayment flexibility in microfinance contracts: Theory and experimental evidence on take up and selection," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 425-450.
    21. Mark Dean & Anja Sautmann, 2021. "Credit Constraints and the Measurement of Time Preferences," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 119-135, March.
    22. Mark Dean & Anja Sautmann, 2014. "Credit Constraints and the Measurement of Time Preferences," Working Papers 2014-1, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    23. Yilma, Zelalem & van Kempen, Luuk & de Hoop, Thomas, 2012. "A perverse ‘net’ effect? Health insurance and ex-ante moral hazard in Ghana," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 138-147.
    24. Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte & Kjær, Trine, 2015. "Government interventions to aid choice: Help to self-help or paternalism?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 874-881.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Malaria; Expectations; Bednets; Identi cation; Dynamic Programming; Discrete Choice; Time Inconsistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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