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Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child-Parent Choices of High School Tracks

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  • Pamela Giustinelli

    () (University of Michigan)

Abstract

Predicting group decisions with uncertain outcomes involves the empirically difficult task of disentangling individual decision makers' beliefs and preferences over outcomes' states from the group's decision rule. This paper addresses the problem within the context of a consequential family decision concerning the high school track of adolescent children in presence of curricular strati cation. The paper combines novel data on children's and parents' probabilistic beliefs, their stated choice preferences, and families' decision rules with standard data on actual choices to estimate a simple model of curriculum choice featuring both uncertainty and heterogeneous cooperative-type decisions. The model's estimates are used to quantify the impact on curriculum enrollment of policies affecting family members' expectations via awareness campaigns, publication of education statistics, and changes in curricular specialization and standards. The latter exercise reveals that identity of policy recipients--whether children, parents, or both--matters for enrollment response, and underlines the importance of incorporating information on decision makers' beliefs and decision rules when evaluating policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Giustinelli, 2011. "Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child-Parent Choices of High School Tracks," Working Papers 2011-030, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2011-030
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    File URL: http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Giustinelli_2011_group-decision-making.pdf
    File Function: First version, July 15, 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Attanasio, Orazio P. & Kaufmann, Katja M., 2014. "Education choices and returns to schooling: Mothers' and youths' subjective expectations and their role by gender," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 203-216.
    2. repec:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:7:p:756-775 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fabian Gouret, 2017. "What can we learn from the fifties?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 756-775, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Choice under Uncertainty; Multilateral Choice; Heterogeneous Decision Rules; Curricular Tracking; Curriculum Choice; Child-Parent Decision Making; Subjective Probabilities; Stated and Revealed Preferences; Choice-Based Sampling;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I29 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Other
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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