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Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence

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  • Pamela Giustinelli

    (Bocconi University)

Abstract

This paper reviews the economic literature on subjective expectations in education with a focus on high income countries. It begins with highlighting the motivations that prompted systematic survey elicitation and statistical analysis of youth's expectations of the returns to schooling and with tracing key milestones in the development of this research program. It then proceeds to reviewing the relevant body of research by organizing the discussion around four topics: (i) the analysis of the perceived monetary returns, risks, and costs of schooling; (ii) the analysis of the perceived nonmonetary returns, risks, and costs of schooling; (iii) the analysis of schooling decisions; (iv) the analysis of expectation formation and learning. For each topic, the paper provides: (a) a motivating analytical framework; (b) a methodological discussion of expectations elicitation and a survey of data collections; (c) a review of the empirical evidence. Avenues for future research are discussed in the conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-026
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    8. Schweri, Juerg & Hartog, Joop, 2014. "Do wage expectations influence the decision to enroll in nursing college?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100542, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2012. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Dropout Decision," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(4), pages 707-748.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    education; expectations; returns to schooling; schooling decisions; subjective probabilities; survey elicitation; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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