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Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe Arteaga
  • Adam J. Kapor
  • Christopher A. Neilson
  • Seth D. Zimmerman

Abstract

Many school districts with centralized school choice adopt strategyproof assignment mechanisms to relieve applicants of the need to strategize on the basis of beliefs about their own admissions chances. This paper shows that beliefs about admissions chances shape choice outcomes even when the assignment mechanism is strategyproof by influencing the way applicants search for schools, and that “smart matching platforms” that provide live feedback on admissions chances help applicants search more effectively. Motivated by a model in which applicants engage in costly search for schools and over-optimism can lead to under-search, we use data from a large-scale survey of choice participants in Chile to show that learning about schools is hard, that beliefs about admissions chances guide the decision to stop searching, and that applicants systematically underestimate non-placement risk. We then use RCT and RD research designs to evaluate scaled live feedback policies in the Chilean and New Haven choice systems. 22% of applicants submitting applications where risks of non-placement are high respond to warnings by adding schools to their lists, reducing non-placement risk by 58% and increasing test score value added at the schools where they enroll by 0.10 standard deviations. Reducing the burden of school choice requires not just strategyproofness inside the centralized system, but also choice supports for the strategic decisions that inevitably remain outside of it.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Arteaga & Adam J. Kapor & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2021. "Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice," NBER Working Papers 28946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28946
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    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Yu-Ting Ho, 2025. "Matching Under Preference Uncertainty: Random Allocation, Informativeness, and Welfare," Papers 2511.09988, arXiv.org.
    3. Emil Chrisander & Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, 2023. "Why Do Students Lie and Should We Worry? An Analysis of Non-truthful Reporting," Papers 2302.13718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    4. Bertoni, Marco & Heller-Sahlgren, Gabriel & Silva, Olmo, 2025. "Free to improve? The impact of free school attendance in England," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. Laverde, Mariana & Mykerezi, Elton & Sojourner, Aaron & Sood, Aradhya, 2025. "Gains from Alternative Assignment? Evidence from a Two-Sided Teacher Market," IZA Discussion Papers 17696, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Kovač, Dejan & Neilson, Christopher A. & Raith, Johanna, 2025. "College application choices in a repeated Deferred Acceptance (DA) Setting: Empirical evidence from Croatia," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Elisa Facchetti & Lorenzo Neri & Marco Ovidi, 2021. "Should you Meet The Parents? The impact of information on non-test score attributes on school choice," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def113, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Kerwin, Jason & Rostom, Nada & Sterck, Olivier, 2024. "Striking the Right Balance: Why Standard Balance Tests Over-Reject the Null, and How to Fix It," IZA Discussion Papers 17217, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Akbarpour, Mohammad & Kapor, Adam & Neilson, Christopher & van Dijk, Winnie & Zimmerman, Seth, 2022. "Centralized School choice with unequal outside options," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    11. Mitja Steinbacher & Matjaž Steinbacher & Clemens Knoppe, 2024. "Opinion Dynamics with Preference Matching: How the Desire to Meet Facilitates Opinion Exchange," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 735-768, August.
    12. Zuchanek, Kevin J., 2025. "Bridging language gaps: Native language school assignment information under immediate acceptance," Ruhr Economic Papers 1172, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Nikhil Agarwal & Eric Budish, 2021. "Market Design," NBER Working Papers 29367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mariana Laverde, 2022. "Distance to Schools and Equal Access in School Choice Systems," Working Papers 2022-002, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    15. Sarah Cohodes & Sean Corcoran & Jennifer Jennings & Carolyn Sattin-Bajaj, 2022. "When Do Informational Interventions Work? Experimental Evidence from New York City High School Choice," NBER Working Papers 29690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Müge Süer & Michel Tolksdorf & Vincent Meisner & Sokol Tominaj, 2025. "Confidence and Information in Strategy-Proof School Choice," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 546, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    17. Tom‡s Larroucau & Ignacio A. Rios & Ana•s Fabre & Christopher Neilson, 2025. "College Application Mistakes and the Design of Information Policies at Scale," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2461, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. E. Molina & C. Cobo & J. Pineda & H. Rovner, 2024. "AI Revolution in Education [La Revolución de la IA en Educación]," World Bank Publications - Reports 41806, The World Bank Group.
    19. Favara, Marta & Freund, Richard & Perez-Alvarez, Marcello, 2023. "What If It Never Happened? Subjective Treatment Effects of a Negative Shock on Youth Labour Market Outcomes in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 16417, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Tincani, Michela M. & Kosse, Fabian & Miglino, Enrico, 2022. "The Effect of Preferential Admissions on the College Participation of Disadvantaged Students: The Role of Pre-College Choices," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 342, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    21. Elacqua, Gregory & Gómez, Leidy & Krussig, Thomas & Marotta, Luana & Méndez, Carolina & Neilson, Christopher, 2022. "The Potential of Smart Matching Platforms in Teacher Assignment: The Case of Ecuador," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12483, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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