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On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models

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  • Wilbert van der Klaauw

Abstract

Despite the importance of expectations in models of decision behavior under uncertainty, few empirical economists have made use of subjective expectations data in estimating such models. Assuming that expectations about future behavior accurately portray optimal future behavior conditional on current information, it is shown that such data can provide similar information about the decision process as can data on current or retrospective behavior. The value of self-reported choice expectations is illustrated by using information on respondents' expected future occupation in the estimation of a structural dynamic model of teacher career decisions under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/664929
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    Cited by:

    1. Schweri, Juerg & Hartog, Joop, 2014. "Do wage expectations influence the decision to enroll in nursing college?," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100542, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2014. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 601-644.
    3. Salvador Navarro & Jin Zhou, 2017. "Identifying Agent's Information Sets: an Application to a Lifecycle Model of Schooling, Consumption, and Labor Supply," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 58-92, April.
    4. Johnson, Kathleen W. & Pence, Karen M. & Vine, Daniel J., 2014. "Auto Sales and Credit Supply," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Huntington-Klein, Nick, 2015. "Subjective and projected returns to education," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 10-25.
    6. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Delavande, Adeline & Zafar, Basit, 2014. "University choice: the role of expected earnings, non-pecuniary outcomes and financial constraints," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-38, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2012. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Dropout Decision," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(4), pages 707-748.
    10. repec:eee:transa:v:104:y:2017:i:c:p:281-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bruno Wichmann & Minjie Chen & Wiktor Adamowicz, 2016. "Social Networks and Choice Set Formation in Discrete Choice Models," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Jochem de Bresser & Raquel Fonseca & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2016. "Retirement Behavior in the U.S. and Europe," Cahiers de recherche 1609, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    13. Vera, Celia Patricia, 2013. "Career Mobility Patterns of Public School Teachers," MPRA Paper 49340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Basit Zafar, 2013. "College Major Choice and the Gender Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(3), pages 545-595.
    15. Luc Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2015. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Cahiers de recherche 1503, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    16. repec:eee:jeborg:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:135-150 is not listed on IDEAS

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