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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

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  • Manski, Charles
  • Lach, Saul
  • Blass, Asher

Abstract

When data on actual choices are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes pose choice scenarios and ask respondents to state the actions they would choose if they were to face these scenarios. The data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones because researchers typically provide respondents with less information than they would have facing actual choice problems. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about their behavior. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and applies the methodology to estimate preferences for electricity reliability in Israel.

Suggested Citation

  • Manski, Charles & Lach, Saul & Blass, Asher, 2008. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability," CEPR Discussion Papers 7030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7030
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    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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