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Partial Identification Of Counterfactual Choice Probabilities

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  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

This article shows how to predict counterfactual discrete choice behavior when the presumed behavioral model partially identifies choice probabilities. The simple, general approach uses observable choice probabilities to partially infer the distribution of types in the population and then applies the results to predict behavior in unrealized choice settings. Two illustrative applications are given. One assumes only that persons have strict preferences. The other assumes strict preferences and utility functions that are linear in attribute bundles, with no restrictions on the shape of the distribution of preference parameters. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Partial Identification Of Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1393-1410, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:4:p:1393-1410
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sam Cosaert & Thomas Demuynck, "undated". "Nonparametric welfare and demand analysis with unobserved individual heterogeneity," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/251988, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2015. "A Simple Estimator for Binary Choice Models with Endogenous Regressors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 82-105, February.
    3. Natalia Lazzati & John K.-H. Quah & Koji Shirai, 2015. "A revealed preference theory of monotone choice and strategic complementarity," Discussion Paper Series 138, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Dec 2015.
    4. Komarova, Tatiana, 2013. "Binary choice models with discrete regressors: Identification and misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 14-33.
    5. repec:spr:etbull:v:3:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1007_s40505-014-0061-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identification with Latent Choice Sets: The Case of the Head Start Impact Study," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org.
    7. Handel, Benjamin R. & Misra, Kanishka & Roberts, James W., 2013. "Robust firm pricing with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 165-185.
    8. Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2010. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities To Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences For Electricity Reliability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 421-440, May.
    9. Hubner, Stefan, 2016. "Topics in nonparametric identification and estimation," Other publications TiSEM 08fce56b-3193-46e0-871b-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Demuynck, Thomas, 2015. "Bounding average treatment effects: A linear programming approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 75-77.
    11. Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Simple Estimators for Binary Choice Models with Endogenous Regressors," Working Papers 111204, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    12. Arthur Lewbel & Yingying Dong & Thomas Tao Yang, 2012. "Viewpoint: Comparing features of convenient estimators for binary choice models with endogenous regressors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 809-829, August.

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