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Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

  • Asher A. Blass
  • Saul Lach
  • Charles F. Manski

When data on actual choices are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes pose choice scenarios and ask respondents to state the actions they would choose if they were to face these scenarios. The data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones because researchers typically provide respondents with less information than they would have facing actual choice problems. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about their behavior. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and applies the methodology to estimate preferences for electricity reliability in Israel.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14451.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14451.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Publication status: published as Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2010. "Using Elicited Choice Probabilities To Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences For Electricity Reliability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 421-440, 05.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14451
Note: EEE IO
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  1. Manski, Charles F., 1975. "Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-228, August.
  2. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
  3. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
  4. Caves, Douglas W & Herriges, Joseph A & Windle, Robert J, 1990. "Customer Demand for Service Reliability in the Electric Power Industry: A Synthesis of the Outage Cost Literature," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 79-119, April.
  5. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
  6. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, 08.
  7. Michael J. Doane & Raymond S. Hartman & Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Households' Perceived Value of Service Reliability: An Analysis of Contingent Valuation Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 135-150.
  8. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Haitovsky, Yoel, 1998. "Response bias in a conjoint analysis of power outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-156, April.
  9. Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March.
  10. Matzkin, Rosa L, 1992. "Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Estimation of the Binary Threshold Crossing and the Binary Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 239-70, March.
  11. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
  12. F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2.
  13. Yongxin Cai & Iraj Deilami & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Customer Retention in a Competitive Power Market: Analysis of a 'Double-Bounded Plus Follow-Ups' Questionnaire," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 191-215.
  14. Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Partial Identification Of Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1393-1410, November.
  15. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-31, May.
  16. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  17. Manski, Charles F, 1999. "Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 49-66, December.
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