Using Elicited Choice Probabilities To Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences For Electricity Reliability
When choice data are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes ask respondents to state the actions they would choose in choice scenarios. Data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated and actual choices may differ because researchers typically provide respondents less information than they would have in actuality. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about behavior. This article shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models and reports estimates of preferences for electricity reliability. Copyright (2010) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 51 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297|
Phone: (215) 898-8487
Fax: (215) 573-2057
Web page: http://www.econ.upenn.edu/ier
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0020-6598 Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-31, May.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
- F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2, 08.
- Delavande, Adeline, 2005.
"Pill, Patch or Shot? Subjective Expectations and Birth Control Choice,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, 08.
- David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
- Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
- Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
- Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Haitovsky, Yoel, 1998. "Response bias in a conjoint analysis of power outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-156, April.
- Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Partial Identification Of Counterfactual Choice Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1393-1410, November.
- Yongxin Cai & Iraj Deilami & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Customer Retention in a Competitive Power Market: Analysis of a 'Double-Bounded Plus Follow-Ups' Questionnaire," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 191-215.
- Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
- Manski, Charles F., 1975. "Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-228, August.
- Caves, Douglas W & Herriges, Joseph A & Windle, Robert J, 1990.
"Customer Demand for Service Reliability in the Electric Power Industry: A Synthesis of the Outage Cost Literature,"
Bulletin of Economic Research,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 79-119, April.
- Herriges, Joseph A. & Caves, Douglas W. & Windle, R. J., 1990. "Customer Demand for Service Reliability in the Electric Power Industry: A Synthesis of the Outage Cost Literature," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10790, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Michael J. Doane & Raymond S. Hartman & Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Households' Perceived Value of Service Reliability: An Analysis of Contingent Valuation Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 135-150.
- Matzkin, Rosa L, 1992. "Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Estimation of the Binary Threshold Crossing and the Binary Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 239-70, March.
- Manski, Charles F, 1999. "Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 49-66, December.
- Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:51:y:2010:i:2:p:421-440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.