IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrisku/v19y1999i1-3p49-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Manski, Charles F

Abstract

This paper studies the use of probabilistic expectations data to predict behavior in incomplete scenarios posed by the researcher. The information that respondents have when replying to questions posing incomplete scenarios is a subset of the information that they would have in actual choice settings. Hence such questions do not elicit pure statements of preference; they elicit preferences mixed with expectations of future events that may affect choice behavior. The analysis developed here assumes respondents recognize that their behavior may depend on information they do not have when expectations are elicited, and that they answer coherently and honestly given the information provided. The objective in imagining such ideal respondents is to place a logical upper bound on the predictive content of elicited choice expectations. Copyright 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Manski, Charles F, 1999. "Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 49-66, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:19:y:1999:i:1-3:p:49-66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.kluweronline.com/issn/0895-5646/contents
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:19:y:1999:i:1-3:p:49-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.