IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v54y2017i2d10.1007_s13524-017-0560-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India

Author

Listed:
  • Adeline Delavande

    (University of Essex
    Nova School of Business and Economics)

  • Jinkook Lee

    (University of Southern California
    RAND Corporation)

  • Seetha Menon

    (European University Institute)

Abstract

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries. Higher levels of education and income have a positive association with survival expectations, and these associations persist even when conditioning on self-reported health. The results remain robust to several alternative specifications. We then compare the survival measures with objective measures of health. We find that activities of daily life, height, and low hemoglobin levels covary with subjective expectations in expected directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0560-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-017-0560-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-017-0560-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-017-0560-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gil Shapira, 2017. "How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(3), pages 680-718.
    2. Winter, Joachim, 2008. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Munich Reprints in Economics 15916, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Kang, Songman, 2012. "Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 3-16.
    4. David Bloom & Perry Hu & P. Arokiasamy & Arun Risbud & T. V. Sekher & S. K. Mohanty & Varsha Kale & Jennifer O'Brien & Sandy Chien & Jinkook Lee, 2014. "Longitudinal Aging Study In India Biomarker Data Documentation," Working Papers 1043, RAND Corporation.
    5. Áureo De Paula & Gil Shapira & Petra E. Todd, 2014. "How Beliefs About Hiv Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence From Malawi," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 944-964, September.
    6. Subramanian, S.V. & Subramanyam, Malavika A. & Selvaraj, Sakthivel & Kawachi, Ichiro, 2009. "Are self-reports of health and morbidities in developing countries misleading? Evidence from India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 260-265, January.
    7. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, August.
    8. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    9. Lance Lochner, 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 444-460, March.
    10. Maria Perozek, 2008. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don’t know?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 95-113, February.
    11. Adeline Delavande, 2014. "Probabilistic Expectations in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Aureo de Paula & Gil Shapira & Petra E. Todd, 2008. "How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Fifth Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 Jul 2010.
    13. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408.
    14. Silvia Balia, 2014. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from SHARE," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 753-780, September.
    15. Ludwig, Alexander & Groneck, Max & Zimper, Alexander, 2021. "Who Saves More, the Naive or the Sophisticated Agent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16412, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2007. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.
    18. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1995. "Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 268-292.
    19. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004. "The effects of subjective survival on retirement and Social Security claiming," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 761-775.
    20. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    21. Bhalotra, Sonia & Rawlings, Samantha B., 2011. "Intergenerational persistence in health in developing countries: The penalty of gender inequality?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 286-299.
    22. Adeline Delavande & Xavier Giné & David McKenzie, 2011. "Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 479-497, April.
    23. Basit Zafar, 2013. "College Major Choice and the Gender Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(3), pages 545-595.
    24. Todd Elder, 2007. "Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity," Working Papers wp159, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    25. Steckel, Richard H., 1979. "Slave height profiles from coastwise manifests," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-380, October.
    26. Gábor Kézdi & Robert J. Willis, 2011. "Household Stock Market Beliefs and Learning," NBER Working Papers 17614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2016. "HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 118-164.
    28. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
    29. van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2008. "Social security and the retirement and savings behavior of low-income households," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 21-42, July.
    30. Alessandro Tarozzi & Aprajit Mahajan & Brian Blackburn & Dan Kopf & Lakshmi Krishnan & Joanne Yoong, 2014. "Micro-loans, Insecticide-Treated Bednets, and Malaria: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Orissa, India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1909-1941, July.
    31. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    32. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    33. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1377-1400, November.
    34. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 498-519, April.
    35. Michael D. Hurd, 2009. "Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 543-564, May.
    36. Adeline Delavande & Michael Perry & Robert Willis, 2006. "Probabilistic Thinking and Early Social Security Claiming," Working Papers wp129, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    37. Schoenbaum, M., 1997. "Do smokers understand the mortality effects of smoking? Evidence from the health and retirement survey," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(5), pages 755-759.
    38. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
    39. Levin, Irwin P. & Schneider, Sandra L. & Gaeth, Gary J., 1998. "All Frames Are Not Created Equal: A Typology and Critical Analysis of Framing Effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 149-188, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biroli, Pietro & Boneva, Teodora & Raja, Akash & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Parental beliefs about returns to child health investments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 33-57.
    2. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 637, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.
    4. Wilson, Nicholas, 2021. "Why is ageing associated with lower adoption of new technologies? Evidence from voluntary medical male circumcision and a structural model," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    5. Manish Kumar & Shobhit Srivastava & T. Muhammad & Priya Saravanakumar, 2022. "Examining the association between health status and subjective life expectancy among older Indian adults based on the mindsponge approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    7. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    8. Favara, Marta & Glewwe, Paul & Porter, Catherine & Sanchez, Alan, 2021. "Expecting Better? How Young People Form Their Earnings Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 14289, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1423, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    2. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Elisa Maria Maffioli & Wendy Prudhomme O’Meara & Elizabeth L. Turner & Manoj Mohanan, 2021. "Can individuals’ beliefs help us understand nonadherence to malaria test results? Evidence from rural Kenya," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 163-182, February.
    4. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    5. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    8. Adeline Delavande, 2012. "HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behavior in Malawi," 2012 Meeting Papers 90, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Vesile Kutlu-Koc & Adriaan Kalwij, 2017. "Individual Survival Expectations and Actual Mortality: Evidence from Dutch Survey and Administrative Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, October.
    10. Kettlewell, Nathan & Walker, Matthew J. & Yoo, Hong Il, 2024. "Alternative Models of Preference Heterogeneity for Elicited Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 16821, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models : Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals," Other publications TiSEM 25d04a47-1020-47eb-ba94-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    14. L. Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2018. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 505-515, July.
    15. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring subjective survival expectations – Do response scales matter?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 136-156.
    16. Yokoo, Hide-Fumi & Arimura, Toshi H. & Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda & Katayama, Hajime, 2023. "Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    17. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    18. Brian Blackburn & Aprajit Mahajan & Alessandro Tarozzi & Joanne Yoong, "undated". "Bednets, Information and Malaria in Orissa," Discussion Papers 08-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    19. Spaenjers, Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2015. "Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
    20. Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "Marriage, children, and labor supply: Beliefs and outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 148-164.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0560-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.