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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?

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  • Adeline Delavande
  • Xavier Giné
  • David McKenzie

Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Adeline Delavande & Xavier Giné & David McKenzie, 2011. "Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 479-497, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:3:p:479-497
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    1. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
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    7. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Díaz Serrano, Lluís, 2017. "The Reliability of Students’ Earnings Expectations," Working Papers 2072/290760, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    2. Maertens, Annemie, 2013. "Social Norms and Aspirations: Age of Marriage and Education in Rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Denisse, 2016. "The Origin and Dynamics of Export Superstars," CEPR Discussion Papers 11687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Steffen Huck & Tobias Schmidt & Georg Weizsäcker, 2014. "The Standard Portfolio Choice Problem in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 650, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Matteo Bobba & Verónica Frisancho, 2016. "Learning about Oneself: The Effects of Performance Feedback on School Choice," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7968, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Sann VATHANA & Sothea OUM & Ponhrith KAN & Colas CHERVIER, 2013. "Impact of Disasters and Role of Social Protection in Natural Disaster Risk Management in Cambodia," Working Papers DP-2013-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    7. Dominik Bauer & Irenaeus Wolff, 2018. "Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence," TWI Research Paper Series 109, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    8. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "How Do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 117-169.
    10. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Nilsson, William, 2017. "The Reliability of Students' Earnings Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 10700, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Baranov, Victoria & Bennett, Daniel & Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2015. "The indirect impact of antiretroviral therapy: Mortality risk, mental health, and HIV-negative labor supply," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 195-211.
    12. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg, 2016. "Subjective Expectations and Income Processes in Rural India," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 416-442, July.
    13. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2013. "Pension Wealth Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 1057-1085, December.
    14. Ayako Matsuda & Takashi Kurosaki, 2017. "Temperature and Rainfall Index Insurance in India," OSIPP Discussion Paper 17E002, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    15. Flávio Cunha & Irma Elo & Jennifer Culhane, 2013. "Eliciting Maternal Expectations about the Technology of Cognitive Skill Formation," NBER Working Papers 19144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    17. Stefano Caria & Paolo Falco, 2014. "Do employers trust workers too little? An experimental study of trust in the labour market," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    18. Chari, A.V. & Maertens, Annemie, 2014. "Gender, productive ability and the perceived returns to education: Evidence from rural India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 253-257.
    19. Bobba, Matteo & Frisancho, Veronica, 2016. "Learning about Oneself: The Effects of Performance Feedback on School Choice," IZA Discussion Papers 10360, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    20. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.

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