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Subjective Expectations of Medical Expenditures and Insurance in Rural Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Zelalem Yilma

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Owen O’Donnell

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Anagaw Mebratie

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Getnet Alemu

    (Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia)

  • Arjun S. Bedi

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

Little is known about perceptions of medical expenditure risks despite their presumed relevance to health insurance demand. This paper reports on a unique elicitation of subjective probabilities of medical expenditures from rural Ethiopians who are offered the opportunity to purchase health insurance. We find that expectations are positively correlated with past expenses to a degree that exceeds the serial correlation in realized expenditures, suggesting overestimation of persistence and underestimation of the potential gains from insurance. Despite the fact that forecast expenditures do predict realized expenditures to some extent, there is no evidence that expectations influence the decision to take out health insurance, although plans to insure are positively related to the perceived dispersion of medical expenses.

Suggested Citation

  • Zelalem Yilma & Owen O’Donnell & Anagaw Mebratie & Getnet Alemu & Arjun S. Bedi, 2015. "Subjective Expectations of Medical Expenditures and Insurance in Rural Ethiopia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-120/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mebratie, Anagaw D. & Sparrow, Robert & Yilma, Zelalem & Abebaw, Degnet & Alemu, Getnet & Bedi, Arjun S., 2019. "The impact of Ethiopia's pilot community based health insurance scheme on healthcare utilization and cost of care," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 112-119.
    2. Aurélien Baillon & Aleli Kraft & Owen O’Donnell & Kim Wilgenburg, 2022. "A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 43-87, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective probability; medical expenditure; out-of-pocket payments; adverse selection; health insurance; Ethiopia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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