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Rounding, Focal Point Answers And Nonresponse To Subjective Probability Questions

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  • Kristin J. Kleinjans
  • Arthur Van Soest

Abstract

SUMMARY We develop a panel data model explaining answers to subjective probabilities about binary events and estimate it using data from the Health and Retirement Study on six such probabilities. The model explicitly accounts for several forms of ‘reporting behavior’: rounding, focal point ‘50%’ answers and item nonresponse. We find observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the tendencies to report rounded values or a focal answer, explaining persistency in 50% answers over time. Focal 50% answers matter for some of the probabilities. Incorporating reporting behavior does not have a large effect on the estimated distribution of the genuine subjective probabilities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin J. Kleinjans & Arthur Van Soest, 2014. "Rounding, Focal Point Answers And Nonresponse To Subjective Probability Questions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 567-585, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:4:p:567-585
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    Cited by:

    1. Binswanger, Johannes & Salm, Martin, 2013. "Does Everyone Use Probabilities? Intuitive and Rational Decisions about Stockholding," IZA Discussion Papers 7265, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Stefan Hoderlein & Bettina Siflinger & Joachim Winter, 2015. "Identification of structural models in the presence of measurement error due to rounding in survey responses," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 869, Boston College Department of Economics.
    3. Paul Ruud & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2014. "Uncertainty causes rounding: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 391-413, September.
    4. repec:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/696061 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    6. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    7. Huynh, Kim P. & Jung, Juergen, 2015. "Subjective health expectations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 693-711.
    8. Drerup, Tilman & Enke, Benjamin & von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin, 2014. "Measurement Error in Subjective Expectation and the Empirical Content of Economic Models," MEA discussion paper series 201414, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    9. repec:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:7:p:756-775 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bissonnette, Luc & Hurd, Michael D. & Michaud, Pierre-Carl, 2014. "Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks," IZA Discussion Papers 8658, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10680-017-9411-y is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fabian Gouret, 2017. "What can we learn from the fifties?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 756-775, November.
    14. Kassenboehmer, Sonja C. & Schurer, Stefanie, 2018. "Survey Item-Response Behavior as an Imperfect Proxy for Unobserved Ability: Theory and Application," IZA Discussion Papers 11449, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Koç, E., 2015. "Job Finding, Job Loss and Consumption Behaviour," Discussion Paper 2015-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. David R. Rappange & Job van Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2017. "A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(1), pages 7-12, January.
    17. Zelalem Yilma & Owen O’Donnell & Anagaw Mebratie & Getnet Alemu & Arjun S. Bedi, 2015. "Subjective Expectations of Medical Expenditures and Insurance in Rural Ethiopia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-120/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Kassenboehmer, Sonja C. & Schurer, Stefanie & Leung, Felix, 2015. "Testing the Validity of Item Non-Response as a Proxy for Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills," IZA Discussion Papers 8874, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    19. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2018. "Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," NBER Working Papers 24559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Stefanie Schurer, 2018. "Survey item-response behavior as an imperfect proxy for unobserved ability: Theory and application," Working Papers 2018-035, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    21. repec:eee:econom:v:200:y:2017:i:2:p:378-389 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:eee:eecrev:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:73-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Katherine Carman & Peter Kooreman, 2014. "Probability perceptions and preventive health care," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 43-71, August.

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