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How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi

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  • Gil Shapira

Abstract

This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average lifetime fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility, although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil Shapira, 2017. "How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(3), pages 680-718.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:52:y:2017:i:3:p:680-718
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/jhr.52.3.0314-6263R1
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Karlsson & Stefan Pichler, 2015. "Demographic consequences of HIV," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1097-1135, October.
    2. Marta Favara & Alan Sanchez, 2017. "Psychosocial competencies and risky behaviours in Peru," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-40, December.
    3. Patrick Aylward & Hildah Essendi & Kristen Little & Nicholas Wilson, 2020. "Demand for self‐tests: Evidence from a Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism field experiment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 489-507, April.
    4. repec:osf:socarx:jf9um_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zelalem Yilma & Owen O’Donnell & Anagaw Mebratie & Getnet Alemu & Arjun S. Bedi, 2018. "Subjective Expectations of Medical Expenditures and Insurance in Rural Ethiopia," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Health Econometrics, volume 127, pages 23-55, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Victoria Baranov & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2018. "The Impact of AIDS Treatment on Savings and Human Capital Investment in Malawi," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 266-306, January.
    8. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2016. "Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(3), pages 215-242, September.
    9. Eriksson, Katherine & Sovero, Veronica, 2016. "The impact of HIV testing on subjective mortality and investments in children: Experimental evidence From Malawi," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 90-93.
    10. Wollburg, Philip Randolph & Bentze, Thomas Patrick & Kilic, Talip, 2023. "Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10604, The World Bank.
    11. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    12. Gori, Luca & Lupi, Enrico & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    13. Adeline Delavande, 2012. "HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behavior in Malawi," 2012 Meeting Papers 90, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Portner, Claus C., 2023. "How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?," SocArXiv jf9um, Center for Open Science.
    15. Anukriti, S & Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Tam, Hiu, 2016. "On the Quantity and Quality of Girls: New Evidence on Abortion, Fertility, and Parental Investments," IZA Discussion Papers 10271, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. S Anukriti & Sonia Bhalotra & Eddy H F Tam, 2022. "On the Quantity and Quality of Girls: Fertility, Parental Investments and Mortality," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 1-36.
    17. Elisa Maria Maffioli & Wendy Prudhomme O’Meara & Elizabeth L. Turner & Manoj Mohanan, 2021. "Can individuals’ beliefs help us understand nonadherence to malaria test results? Evidence from rural Kenya," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 163-182, February.
    18. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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