IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/deveco/v54y2016i3p215-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi

Author

Listed:
  • Dick Durevall
  • Annika Lindskog

Abstract

type="main"> The future course of fertility is a major determinant of economic development in many sub-Saharan countries, so understanding how HIV/AIDS affects childbearing is of great interest. We show that fertility responds negatively to female mortality and positively to male mortality and that the overall fertility response is small. The negative effect of female mortality is in line with earlier studies that only focus on women and their infection and mortality risks, while the finding of a positive effect of adult-male mortality is novel. One interpretation of this finding is that women who perceive a high risk of their husbands' or grown-up sons' deaths are likely to want to have more children to ensure future support.

Suggested Citation

  • Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2016. "Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(3), pages 215-242, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:215-242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/deve.12111
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esther Duflo & Pascaline Dupas & Michael Kremer, 2015. "Education, HIV, and Early Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2757-2797, September.
    2. Gil Shapira, 2017. "How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(3), pages 680-718.
    3. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    4. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    5. Mika Ueyama & Futoshi Yamauchi, 2009. "Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    6. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
    7. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
    8. Ruben Castro & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Perception of HIV risk and the quantity and quality of children: the case of rural Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 113-132, January.
    9. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    10. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    11. Oster, Emily, 2012. "HIV and sexual behavior change: Why not Africa?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-49.
    12. Magadi, Monica Akinyi & Agwanda, Alfred O., 2010. "Investigating the association between HIV/AIDS and recent fertility patterns in Kenya," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 335-344, July.
    13. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    14. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.
    15. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    16. Nava Ashraf & Erica Field & Jean Lee, 2014. "Household Bargaining and Excess Fertility: An Experimental Study in Zambia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2210-2237, July.
    17. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2011. "HIV and fertility revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 61-65, September.
    18. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
    19. Oster Emily, 2010. "Estimating HIV Prevalence and Incidence in Africa from Mortality Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, September.
    20. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
    21. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    22. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, April.
    23. Rodrigo Soares, 2006. "The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, February.
    24. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
    25. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    26. Jane G. Fortson, "undated". "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 38387ebd1f044714b4a5ab70e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    27. Iliana Kohler & Hans-Peter Kohler & Philip Anglewicz & Jere Behrman, 2012. "Intergenerational Transfers in the Era of HIV/AIDS: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(27), pages 775-834.
    28. Günther Fink & Sebastian Linnemayr, 2013. "HIV Does Matter for Fertility: Human Capital, Mortality and Family Size," PGDA Working Papers 10913, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    29. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    30. Erasmus U. Morah, 2007. "Are People Aware of Their HIV-positive Status Responsible for Driving the Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa? The Case of Malawi," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 215-242, March.
    31. Peter J. Glick & David E. Sahn, 2008. "Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 397-439, January.
    32. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    33. Erick Gong, 2015. "HIV Testing and Risky Sexual Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(582), pages 32-60, February.
    34. Susan Cotts Watkins, 2004. "Navigating the AIDS Epidemic in Rural Malawi," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(4), pages 673-705, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruben Castro & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Perception of HIV risk and the quantity and quality of children: the case of rural Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 113-132, January.
    2. Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    3. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    2. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    3. Wilson, Nicholas, 2015. "Child mortality risk and fertility: Evidence from prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 74-88.
    4. Yao Yao, . "Fertility and HIV Risk in Africa," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," NBER Working Papers 27757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2009. "How Does Communal HIV/AIDS Affect Fertility? - Evidence from Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 369, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 25 Aug 2009.
    7. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," VID Working Papers 1604, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    8. Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    9. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    10. Friedman, Willa Helterline, 2018. "Antiretroviral drug access and behavior change," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 392-411.
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    12. Okada, Keisuke, 2012. "The effects of female HIV/AIDS status on fertility and child health in Cambodia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 560-570.
    13. Ruben Castro & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Perception of HIV risk and the quantity and quality of children: the case of rural Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 113-132, January.
    14. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    15. Martin Karlsson & Stefan Pichler, 2015. "Demographic consequences of HIV," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1097-1135, October.
    16. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
    17. William W. Olney, 2015. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 694-727.
    18. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Post-Print halshs-00609798, HAL.
    19. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    20. Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2008. "Uncovering the Effect of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 318, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2009.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:215-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.