IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v24y2020i3p949-972.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

Author

Listed:
  • Belgi Turan

Abstract

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:24:y:2020:i:3:p:949-972
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12665
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rode.12665?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griffith Feeney, 2001. "The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Adult Mortality in Zimbabwe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 771-780, December.
    2. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(3), pages 403-417, September.
    3. Jane G Fortson, 2011. "Mortality Risk and Human Capital Investment: The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 277-291, March.
    5. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_paxson_orphansafrica is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    7. Gauri Kartini Shastry & David N. Weil, 2003. "How Much of Cross-Country Income Variation is Explained By Health?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 387-396, 04/05.
    8. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    10. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    11. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 01A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    12. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
    13. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    15. Emmanuela Gakidou & Gary King, 2006. "Death by survey: Estimating adult mortality without selection bias from sibling survival data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(3), pages 569-585, August.
    16. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1985. "Endogenous fertility and optimal population size," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 93-106, June.
    17. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, June.
    18. Rodrigo R. Soares & Bruno L. S. Falcão, 2008. "The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(6), pages 1058-1104, December.
    19. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    20. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
    21. Ian Timæus & Momodou Jasseh, 2004. "Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from demographic and health surveys," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 757-772, November.
    22. Sarah Bridges & David Lawson, 2008. "Health and Labour Market Participation in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2008-07, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: parental death, poverty, and school enrollment," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 483-508, August.
    24. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    25. Gallup, John & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294434, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    26. David Evans & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Orphans and schooling in africa: a longitudinal analysis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 35-57, February.
    27. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 349-397.
    28. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
    29. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
    30. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    31. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 353-362, August.
    32. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    33. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    34. Quamrul H. Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David N. Weil, 2009. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 157-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Bicego, George & Rutstein, Shea & Johnson, Kiersten, 2003. "Dimensions of the emerging orphan crisis in sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1235-1247, March.
    36. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    37. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2011. "HIV and fertility revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 61-65, September.
    38. Oster Emily, 2010. "Estimating HIV Prevalence and Incidence in Africa from Mortality Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, September.
    39. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Jörg L. Spenkuch, 2016. "The Manipulation of Children's Preferences, Old-Age Support, and Investment in Children's Human Capital," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 3-30.
    40. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
    41. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2014. "Disease and Development Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1355-1366.
    42. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_orphansafrica is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Tamura, Robert, 2006. "Human capital and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 26-72, February.
    45. Jane G. Fortson, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 170-194, July.
    46. Rodrigo Soares, 2006. "The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, February.
    47. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B, 1992. "Public versus Private Investment in Human Capital Endogenous Growth and Income Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 818-834, August.
    48. Hoyt Bleakley, 2007. "Disease and Development: Evidence from Hookworm Eradication in the American South," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 73-117.
    49. Szpiro, George G, 1986. "Measuring Risk Aversion: An Alternative Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 156-159, February.
    50. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    51. Günther Fink & Sebastian Linnemayr, 2013. "HIV Does Matter for Fertility: Human Capital, Mortality and Family Size," PGDA Working Papers 10913, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    52. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_paxson_orphansafrica.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
    54. Gallup, John L. & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Mellinger, Andrew, "undated". "Geography and Economic Development," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics geodata, Boston College Department of Economics.
    55. repec:mpr:mprres:7082 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Kasirye, Ibrahim & Hisali, Eria, 2008. "The Socioeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS on Education Outcomes in Uganda: School Enrolment and the Schooling Gap in 2002/03," Research Series 113624, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    57. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_orphansafrica.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    58. repec:mpr:mprres:6928 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Shafiullah & Mantu K. Mahalik, 2019. "The dynamics of financial development, globalisation, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan Africa," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 444-479, December.
    2. Vallence Ngabo Maniragaba & Fabrice Nkurunziza & Iradukunda Michel, 2016. "Demographic Characteristics and Economic Growth: Rwanda’s Experience (1995-2014)," Journal of Social Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(4), pages 170-184.
    3. Amandeep Singh & Kuldeep Kumar & Jasneet Kaur Wadhwa & Arun Palakkandy, 2020. "Effect of Life Expectancy on Technological Development," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 5(1), pages 225-237, March.
    4. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2023. "Years of life lost to revolution and war in Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 2061-2103, November.
    5. Elisabete Nogueira & Sofia Gomes & João M. Lopes, 2022. "The Key to Sustainable Economic Development: A Triple Bottom Line Approach," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Salisu Waziri & Norashidah Mohamed Nor & Nik Mustapha Raja Abdullah & Peter Adamu, 2016. "Effect of the Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and the Life Expectancy Rate on Economic Growth in SSA Countries: Difference GMM Approach," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 212-212, April.
    7. MAHYAR Hami, 2016. "Economic Growth And Life Expectancy: The Case Of Iran," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 80-87, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    2. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    3. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    6. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    8. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel, 2018. "Health and economic development since 1900," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 228-237.
    9. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 11940, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Martine AUDIBERT & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Alassane DRABO, 2010. "Global Burden of Disease and Economic Growth," Working Papers 201036, CERDI.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    12. Grimm, M., 2010. "Does inequality in health impede growth?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19426, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    13. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    14. Madsen, Jakob B., 2016. "Barriers to Prosperity: Parasitic and Infectious Diseases, IQ, and Economic Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 172-187.
    15. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    16. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    17. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2016. "Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(3), pages 215-242, September.
    18. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    19. Casper Worm Hansen, 2012. "Causes of mortality and development: Evidence from large health shocks in 20th century America," Economics Working Papers 2012-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "The Relationship Between Health and Growth: When Lucas Meets Nelson-Phelps," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(1).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:24:y:2020:i:3:p:949-972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.