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The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Bloom

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Linlin Hu

    (Tsinghua University (School of Public Policy and Management))

  • Yuanli Liu

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Ajay Mahal

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Winnie Yip

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & David Canning & Linlin Hu & Yuanli Liu & Ajay Mahal & Winnie Yip, 2007. "The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India," PGDA Working Papers 2807, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2807
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    Keywords

    aging; health; retirement;

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