IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth

  • Kerekes, Monika
Registered author(s):

    In this paper economic growth is interpreted as a sequence of transitions between distinct growth regimes that countries visit with different frequencies. Countries featuring similar growth dynamics are endogenously grouped into three different clusters. The first cluster comprises successful countries that are characterized by lengthy periods of high or very high growth. Moderately successful countries in the second cluster experience both periods of reasonable growth and periods of stagnation, whereas failing countries in the third cluster suffer from highly volatile growth rates with frequent episodes of crisis. Successful countries are characterized by better initial conditions, policies and institutions compared to the other countries. Neither initial conditions nor institutions distinguish moderately successful from failing countries; what makes them different is policy in the form of investments into infrastructure and human capital, trade liberalization and limited policy volatility.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387811000691
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

    Volume (Year): 98 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 167-177

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:98:y:2012:i:2:p:167-177
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
    2. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, 09.
    3. Canova, Fabio, 2001. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita : a predictive density approach," HWWA Discussion Papers 139, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    5. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
    6. StevenN. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & ChihMing Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, 03.
    7. Simon Johnson & William Larson & Chris Papageorgiou & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates," NBER Working Papers 15455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    9. Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2011. "Acceleration, Stagnation and Crisis: the Role of Policies and Institutions," MPRA Paper 29666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2003. "Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income," NBER Working Papers 9490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May.
    12. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind, 2004. "From 'Hindu Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 4371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    14. Henry, Peter B. & Miller, Conrad, 2008. "Institutions versus Policies: A Tale of Two Islands," Research Papers 2012, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    15. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
    16. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Judicial Checks and Balances," NBER Working Papers 9775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06.
    18. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
    19. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    20. Komiya, Ryutaro & Yasui, Kazuo, 1984. "Japan's macroeconomic performance since the first oil crisis: Review and appraisal," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 69-114, January.
    21. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Kim, C.-J.Chang-Jin, 2004. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 127-136, September.
    23. Dan Ben-David, 1997. "Convergence Clubs and Subsistence Economies," NBER Working Papers 6267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    25. Marco Alfo & Giovanni Trovato & Robert J. Waldmann, 2008. "Testing for country heterogeneity in growth models using a finite mixture approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 487-514.
    26. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
    27. Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2006. "Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-385, December.
    28. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    29. Papageorgiou, Chris, 2002. "Trade as a threshold variable for multiple regimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 85-91, September.
    30. Desdoigts, Alain, 1999. " Patterns of Economic Development and the Formation of Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-30, September.
    31. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
    32. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    33. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Human capital and technology diffusion," Working Paper Series 2003-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Dani Rodrick, 2003. "Growth Strategies," Economics working papers 2003-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    35. Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2003. " Geography and Poverty Traps," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 355-78, December.
    36. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    37. Davis, Lewis & Owen, Ann L. & Videras, Julio, 2007. "Do all countries follow the same growth process?," MPRA Paper 11589, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2008.
    38. Biernacki, Christophe & Celeux, Gilles & Govaert, Gerard, 2003. "Choosing starting values for the EM algorithm for getting the highest likelihood in multivariate Gaussian mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 561-575, January.
    39. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Karlis, Dimitris & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2003. "Choosing initial values for the EM algorithm for finite mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 577-590, January.
    41. Canning, David, 1998. "A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950-95," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 529-47, September.
    42. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2009. "Macroeconomic Stability and the Distribution of Growth Rates," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 23(3), pages 443-479, September.
    43. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W., 2010. "Do all countries grow alike?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-127, January.
    44. Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Does Africa grow slower than Asia, Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a new data-based classification method," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 553-570, August.
    45. Juan Antonio Morales & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Bolivia's Economic Crisis," NBER Working Papers 2620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    47. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," NBER Working Papers 11528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Kamel Jedidi & Harsharanjeet S. Jagpal & Wayne S. DeSarbo, 1997. "Finite-Mixture Structural Equation Models for Response-Based Segmentation and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 39-59.
    49. Oya Pinar Ardic, 2006. "The Gap Between the Rich and the Poor: Patterns of Heterogenity in the Cross-Country Data," Working Papers 2006/01, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    50. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
    52. Wolfgang Lutz & Anne Goujon & Samir K.C. & Warren Sanderson, 2007. "Reconstruction of population by age, sex and level of educational attainment of 120 countries for 1970-2000," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 193-235.
    53. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:98:y:2012:i:2:p:167-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.