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Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps

Author

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  • Richard Bluhm
  • Denis de Crombrugghe
  • Adam Szirmai

Abstract

This paper studies periods of prolonged contractions in output per capita in a sample of 145 countries from 1950 to 2014. Economic slumps are defined as abrupt interruptions of a period of growth by several regime switches. Slumps start with a sharp contraction along with a trend break, which is followed by another switch when growth stabilizes again. The paper then analyzes the correlates of these slumps, focusing on the length and depth of the contraction, from the beginning of the slump to its trough. The results establish three new stylized facts: (i) weak political institutions predate crises whereas political reforms tend to follow them, (ii) the length and depth of economic declines are robustly correlated with executive constraints and ethnic heterogeneity, and (iii) there is a robust interaction between these two variables, suggesting that institutions constraining leaders are important for stabilizing growth. This is particularly relevant for Sub-Saharan Africa, where politics are often ethnic and decision makers are comparatively unconstrained.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:34:y::i:3:p:810-832.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhz015
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    Cited by:

    1. Mallick, Debdulal, 2015. "Elusive Relationship between Business-cycle Volatility and Long-run Growth," MPRA Paper 64502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Beni Kouevi-Gath & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Do banking crises improve democracy?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 413-446, March.
    3. Pritchett, Lant & Sen, Kunal & Kar, Sabyasachi & Raihan, Selim, 2016. "Trillions gained and lost: Estimating the magnitude of growth episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 279-291.
    4. Vassilis T. Rapanos & Georgia Kaplanoglou, 2014. "Governance, Growth and the Recent Economic Crisis: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(1), pages 3-34, June.
    5. Bluhm, Richard & Thomsson, Kaj, 2020. "Holding on? Ethnic divisions, political institutions and the duration of economic declines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Bluhm, Richard & Thomsson, Kaj, 2015. "Ethnic divisions, political institutions and the duration of declines," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112863, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Andros Kourtellos & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2022. "Robust Correlates of Growth Spells: Do Inequality and Redistribution Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1302-1328, December.
    8. Dimitris P. SKALKOS, 2018. "Studying the political economy of reforms: The Greek case, 2010-2017," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 163-186, Summer.
    9. Chiraz Karamti & Najla Wannes Abd-Mouleh, 2023. "Finding Entrepreneurial Opportunities in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(3), pages 3519-3548, September.
    10. Imam, Patrick A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2024. "Political institutions and output collapses," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Mallick Debdulal, 2019. "The growth-volatility relationship redux: what does volatility decomposition tell?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Bluhm R & Thomsson K.M., 2015. "Ethnic divisions, political institutions and the duration of declines: A political economy theory of delayed recovery," MERIT Working Papers 2015-003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Millemaci, Emanuele & Monteforte, Fabio & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2025. "Electing for stability: Democracy and output volatility, 1960-2019," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    14. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Kaba, Ibrahima & Szirmai, Adam, 2015. "Structural change and the ability to sustain growth," MERIT Working Papers 2015-048, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Ahlerup, Pelle & Olsson, Ola, 2023. "Sustainable Economic Growth: A Critical Assessment of SDG 8.1," Working Papers in Economics 834, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Adegboye Abidemi C. & Alao-Owunna Ifeoluwa & Bank-Ola Folake R., 2022. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Employment in sub-Sharan Africa: Do Labour Market Institutions Matter?," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 97-118.
    17. Mallick, Debdulal, 2017. "The Growth-Volatility Relationship: What Does Volatility Decomposition Tell?," MPRA Paper 79397, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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