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Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita : a predictive density approach

  • Canova, Fabio

The paper proposes a technique to jointly tests for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of income per-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each group has clearly identifiable economics characteristics.

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19412/1/139.pdf
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Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 139.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26361
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Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/20
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  1. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  2. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9419 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1995. "Let's Get Real: A Dynamic Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  7. Desdoigts, Alain, 1999. " Patterns of Economic Development and the Formation of Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-30, September.
  8. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paapaa, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K., 1998. "Distribution and mobility of wealth of nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1269-1293, July.
  10. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  11. Quah, Danny T, 1996. " Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-124, March.
  12. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  13. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
  14. Fabio Canova & Albert Marcet, 1995. "The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions," Economics Working Papers 137, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
  15. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
  16. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
  17. Galor, Oded & Zeira, Joseph, 1988. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 51644, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 1989.
  18. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 1350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Wolfgang Polasek, . "Structural Breaks and VAR Modeling with Marginal Likelihoods," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 50, Society for Computational Economics.
  20. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Ben-David, D., 1995. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," Papers 40-95, Tel Aviv.
  23. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
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