IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csl/devewp/158.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Divergence. Is it Geography?

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Straubhaar

    (HWWA and CEPR)

  • Marc Suhrcke

    (HWWA and UNICEF)

  • Dieter Urban

    (LdA and HWWA)

Abstract

This paper tests directly a geography and growth model using regional data for Europe, the US, and Japan during different time periods. We set up a standard geography and growth model with a poverty trap and derive a log- linearized growth equation that corresponds directly to a threshold regression technique in econometrics. In particular, we test whether regions with high population density (centers) grow faster and have a permanently higher per capita income than regions with low population density (peripheries). We find geography driven divergence for US states and European regions after 1980. Population density is superior in explaining divergence to initial income which the most important official EU eligibility criterium for regional aid is built on. Divergence is stronger on smaller regional units (NUTS3) than on larger ones (NUTS2). Thus, the wavelength of agglomeration forces seems to be rather small in Europe. Human capital and R&D are transmission channels of divergence processes. Human capital based poverty trap models are an alternative explanation for regional poverty traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Straubhaar & Marc Suhrcke & Dieter Urban, 2002. "Divergence. Is it Geography?," Development Working Papers 158, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:csl:devewp:158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dagliano.unimi.it/media/WP2001_158.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7463 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Funke, Michael & Hall, Stephen & Ruhwedel, Ralf, 1999. "Shock Hunting: The Relative Importance of Industry-Specific, Region-Specific and Aggregate Shocks in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 49-65, Supplemen.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    5. Baldwin, Richard E. & Forslid, Rikard, 2000. "Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: A q-theory approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 497-517, April.
    6. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    7. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    10. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    11. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 2, pages 25-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    13. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    14. Baldwin, Richard E., 2001. "Core-periphery model with forward-looking expectations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-49, February.
    15. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    17. Damien Neven & Claudine Gouymte, 1995. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 47-65, March.
    18. Baldwin, Richard E. & Forslid, Rikard, 1999. "Incremental trade policy and endogenous growth:: A q-theory approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(5-6), pages 797-822, April.
    19. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    20. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    21. Angel de la Fuente, "undated". "What kind of regional convergence?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 07, FEDEA.
    22. Baldwin, Richard E., 1999. "Agglomeration and endogenous capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-280, February.
    23. Funke, Michael & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2005. "Threshold effects and regional economic growth--evidence from West Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-80, January.
    24. Esteban, J., 2000. "Regional convergence in Europe and the industry mix: a shift-share analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 353-364, May.
    25. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-384, Oct.-Dec..
    27. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    28. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    29. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    30. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    31. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin, 1999. "Two Waves of Globalisation: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences," NBER Working Papers 6904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Dieter M. Urban, 2007. "Neoclassical Growth, Manufacturing Agglomeration, and Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 1014-1035, November.
    33. Philippe Martin, 1998. "Can Regional Policies Affect Growth and Geography in Europe?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(6), pages 757-774, August.
    34. Fabio Canova & Albert Marcet, 1995. "The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions," Economics Working Papers 137, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
    35. repec:hhs:iuiwop:496 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
    37. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    38. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    39. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    41. Junius, Karsten, 1997. "The determinants of urban concentration," Kiel Working Papers 835, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    42. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January.
    43. Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    44. Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
    45. Baldwin, Richard & Forslid, Rikard, 1997. "The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Baldwin, Richard E & Forslid, Rikard, 2000. "The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth: Stabilizing and Destabilizing Integration," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 307-324, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabiano COMPAGNUCCI & Augusto CUSINATO, 2011. "Industrial Districts and the City: Relationships in the Knowledge Age. Evidence from the Italian Case," Working Papers 365, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Giovanni Peri & Dieter Urban, 2002. "The Veblen-Gerschenkron Effect of FDI in Mezzogiorno and East Germany," Development Working Papers 164, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    3. Giovanni Peri & Dieter Urban, 2002. "The Veblen-Gerschenkron Effect of FDI in Mezzogiorno and East Germany," Development Working Papers 164, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    4. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    5. Annekatrin Niebuhr & Silvia Stiller, 2003. "Territorial disparities in Europe," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 38(3), pages 156-164, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    2. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Boiscuvier, Éléonore, 2001. "Innovation, intégration et développement régional," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 255-280, juin.
    4. Azomahou, Théophile T. & El ouardighi, Jalal & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Pham, Thi Kim Cuong, 2011. "Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1202-1210, May.
    5. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2003. "Convergence and space," Urban/Regional 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2003.
    6. Dieter M. Urban, 2007. "Terms of Trade, Catch-up, and Home Market Effect: The Example of Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2164, CESifo.
    7. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2005. "Regional convergence, inequality, and space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 155-176, April.
    8. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    9. Stavros Rodokanakis, 2006. "“How Effective are the Regional Policies of Convergence in the EU?”," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 59-74.
    10. Postiglione, Paolo & Benedetti, Roberto & Lafratta, Giovanni, 2010. "A regression tree algorithm for the identification of convergence clubs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2776-2785, November.
    11. KOCH, Wilfried, 2004. "Effets de voisinage dans le modèle de Solow avec des externalités spatiales," LEG - Document de travail - Economie 2004-06, LEG, Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne.
    12. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Trade liberalisation and agglomeration with firm heterogeneity: Forward and backward linkages," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 530-541, September.
    13. Gianni Guastella & Francesco Timpano, 2016. "Knowledge, innovation, agglomeration and regional convergence in the EU: motivating place-based regional intervention," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 121-143, October.
    14. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    15. G Ottaviano & Diego Puga, 1997. "Agglomeration in a global Economy: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0356, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    17. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner, 2010. "Demographic change, growth and agglomeration," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp132, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    18. Maarten Bosker & Waldo Krugell, 2008. "Regional Income Evolution In South Africa After Apartheid," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 493-523, August.
    19. Paolo Postiglione & M. Andreano & Roberto Benedetti, 2013. "Using Constrained Optimization for the Identification of Convergence Clubs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 151-174, August.
    20. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    21. Thi Kim Cuong Pham & Phu Nguyen Van & Jalal El Ouardighi & Théophile Azomahou, 2006. "Estimation semi-paramétrique de la convergence des régions européennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 173(2), pages 97-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: threshold estimation; economic geography; regional income convergence; poverty trap; regime shifts; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csl:devewp:158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/damilit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chiara Elli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/damilit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.