IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

  • Urban, Dieter M.

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the long run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of domestic and foreign prices of traded manufacturing goods) and economic growth of a pair of industrialized countries, one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. It is shown theoretically that there is no mean reversion of the terms of trade towards PPP during a catch-up process, which suggests very long half-life times of terms of trade. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home market effect and the productivity shock effect. These two effects are testedagainst each other in a cointegration analysis for Japan and the US from 1957 until 1997. Income appears to be a relevant variable to explain the terms of trade in the Post-Bretton-Woods era. The relevant empirical channel is the home market effect. However, financial market effects appear also to be relevant.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889-1583(07)00025-1
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 470-488

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:21:y:2007:i:4:p:470-488
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Juselius, Katarina & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "International parity relationships between the USA and Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-34, January.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  4. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2001. "Growth and Agglomeration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00179826, HAL.
    • Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. "Growth and Agglomeration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 947-68, November.
  7. Charles Engel, 1998. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0050, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  8. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
  9. Granger, Clive W. J., 1992. "Fellow's opinion: Evaluating economic theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 3-5.
  10. Baldwin, Richard E., 1999. "Agglomeration and endogenous capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-280, February.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 7313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473, June.
  13. Durlauf, S.M. & Johnson, P.A., 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behavior," Working papers 9419r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
  15. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The usual suspects? productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
  18. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  19. Apostolos Serletis, 1994. "Maximum likelihood cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: Evidence from seventeen OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 476-493, September.
  20. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Bierens, H.J., 1995. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Discussion Paper 1995-123, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  22. Bierens, Herman J., 2001. "Complex Unit Roots And Business Cycles: Are They Real?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 962-983, October.
  23. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  24. Kelly, Morgan, 1992. "On endogenous growth with productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 47-56, October.
  25. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  26. Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9612, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  27. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
  28. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  29. Daniel, Betty C., 1997. "International interdependence of national growth rates: A structural trends anakysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 73-96, September.
  30. Johansen, Soren & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 1999. "Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 73-91, November.
  31. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  32. Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-28, March.
  33. Rossana, Robert J., 1998. "On the adjustment matrix in error correction models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 427-444, July.
  34. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  35. Baldwin, Richard & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 1998. "Global Income Divergence, Trade and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  37. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  38. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  39. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  40. Ogaki, M. & Park, Y.Y., 1989. "A Cointegration Approach To Estimating Preference Parameters," RCER Working Papers 209, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  41. Baldwin, Richard & Forslid, Rikard, 1997. "The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  44. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  45. MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "On the Japanese Yen-US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," CEPR Discussion Papers 1639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  48. repec:eee:jjieco:v:11:y:1997:i:4:p:523-547 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
  50. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
  51. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  52. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  53. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  54. Jaewoo Lee & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 6495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  56. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, EconWPA.
  57. repec:eee:jjieco:v:11:y:1997:i:2:p:143-184 is not listed on IDEAS
  58. Elhanan Helpman & David T. Coe, 1993. "International RandD Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 93/84, International Monetary Fund.
  59. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
  60. repec:eee:jjieco:v:11:y:1997:i:2:p:228-246 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:21:y:2007:i:4:p:470-488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.