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Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All

  • Engel, C.

Recent tests using long data series find evidence in favor of long-run PPP (by rejecting either the null hypothesis of unit roots in real exchange rates and relative prices.)

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Paper provided by Department of Economics at the University of Washington in its series Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington with number 96-05.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:washer:96-05
Contact details of provider: Postal: Box 353330, Seattle, WA 98193-3330
Web page: http://www.econ.washington.edu/
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  1. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
  2. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  5. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stock, James H., 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know and do we care? : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 63-82, January.
  8. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Engel, Charles & Kim, Chang-Jin, 1999. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 335-56, August.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Kim, Michael & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Working Papers 95-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  13. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
  16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, June.
  18. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
  20. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  21. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
  22. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  23. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  24. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
  25. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  26. Perron, Pierre & Ng, Serena, 1996. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 435-63, July.
  27. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  28. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  29. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  30. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Edison, Hali J, 1987. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Test of the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate (1890-1978)," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 376-87, August.
  32. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  33. Patel, Jayendu, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 367-79, Oct.-Dec..
  34. Fisher, Eric O'N & Park, Joon Y, 1991. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1476-84, November.
  35. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-66, April.
  36. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  37. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
  40. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
  41. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Clark, Peter K., 1988. "Nearly redundant parameters and measures of persistence in economic time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 447-461.
  43. Faust, Jon, 1996. "Near Observational Equivalence and Theoretical size Problems with Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 724-731, October.
  44. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  45. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1994. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 251-256, November.
  46. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  47. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January.
  48. Charles Engel & Michael K. Hendrickson & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Intra-national, intra-continental, and intra-planetary PPP," International Finance Discussion Papers 589, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  49. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
  50. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1148-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Hali J. Edison & Jan Tore Klovland, 1983. "A quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis : evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 231, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:724-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
  54. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
  55. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
  57. Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51.
  58. Blough, Stephen R, 1992. "The Relationship between Power and Level for Generic Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 295-308, July-Sept.
  59. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
  60. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
  61. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
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