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On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials

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  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Nagayasu, Jun

Abstract

In this paper the short- and long-run movements of the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate are modelled for the recent floating period. The modern general-to-specific approach is used as our econometric framework. In contrast to some other exchange rate studies, we interpret multiple cointegrating vectors using economic theory. Among the findings are sensible and significant long-run relationships, and dynamic equations which describe the movements of the exchange rate and satisfy a battery of diagnostic tests. The models are shown to produce good in-sample forecasting performance and also out-of-sample forecasting performance which dominates a random walk.
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  • MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998. "On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:75-102
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    Cited by:

    1. Urban, Dieter M., 2007. "Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 470-488, December.
    2. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
    3. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dorota Górecka & Dominik Sliwicki, 2009. "Application of Panel Data Models to Exchange Rates’ Modeling for Scandinavian and Central and Eastern European Countries," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9, pages 51-60.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2001. "Weak Economy and Strong Currency: The Origins of the Strong Yen in the 1990s," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(4), pages 489-503.
    6. Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "Money demand instability and real exchange rate persistence in the monetary model of USD–JPY exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-51.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Metodey Polasek, 2005. "The commodity-currency view of the Australian dollar: A multivariate cointegration approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 81-99, May.
    9. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2012. "Directional forecasting in financial time series using support vector machines: The USD/Euro exchange rate," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 5-2012, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    10. Nagayasu, Jun, 2003. "Asymmetric effects of monetary indicators on the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 143-159, April.
    11. Njuguna S. Ndung'U & Rose W. Ngugi, 1999. "Adjustment and liberalization in Kenya: the financial and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 465-491.
    12. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment; An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 06/140, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Coppola,Andrea & Lagerborg,Andresa & Mustafaoglu,Zafer, 2016. "Estimating an equilibrium exchange rate for the Argentine Peso," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7682, The World Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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