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On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials

  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Nagayasu, Jun

In this paper the short- and long-run movements of the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate are modelled for the recent floating period. The modern general-to-specific approach is used as our econometric framework. In contrast to some other exchange rate studies, we interpret multiple cointegrating vectors using economic theory. Among the findings are sensible and significant long-run relationships, and dynamic equations which describe the movements of the exchange rate and satisfy a battery of diagnostic tests. The models are shown to produce good in-sample forecasting performance and also out-of-sample forecasting performance which dominates a random walk.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 12 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 75-102

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:75-102
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

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  1. Ronald MacDonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate; Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 92/34, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  3. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics; A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  5. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233409, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  7. Garry J. Schinasi & P. A. V. B. Swamy, 1987. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Special Studies Papers 212, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
  9. Takatoshi Ito, 1993. "Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration," International Finance Discussion Papers 412, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  13. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
  14. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling; A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  17. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
  18. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  19. Muscatelli, V A, 1989. "A Comparison of the 'Rational Expectations' and 'General-to-Specific' Approaches to Modelling the Demand for M1," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 353-75, November.
  20. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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