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Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: A Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen


  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Marsh, Ian W


This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the three major countries. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interactions between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. These interactions are shown to be important via generalised impulse response analysis, and the model as a whole to be an economically and statistically superior forecasting tool over relatively short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W, 1999. "Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: A Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen," CEPR Discussion Papers 2210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2210

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-695, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cushman, David O., 2008. "Long-run PPP in a system context: No favorable evidence after all for the U.S., Germany, and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 413-424, December.
    2. Guerreiro, David, 2014. "Is the European debt crisis a mere balance of payments crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 50-56.
    3. Martin Melecky, 2008. "A Structural Investigation of Third-Currency Shocks to Bilateral Exchange Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 19-48, May.
    4. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2002. "Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway," Discussion Papers 326, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    6. Melecky, M, 2007. "Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange," MPRA Paper 4186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro," Working Paper Series 193, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Information transmission across currency futures markets: Evidence from frequency domain tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 134-139, June.

    More about this item


    Exchange Rates; Forecasting; Impulse Response; PPP Exchange Rate Rules; Spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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