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Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark, and Yen

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  • Mr. Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

In this paper we use an exchange rate model that combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. In contrast to much other empirical exchange rate modeling, our approach explicitly involves the use of a current account sustainability term. Amongst the findings reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for all of the currencies studied; appealing short-run dynamics for two of the currencies; and a finding that the Japanese effective exchange rate closely tracks the long-run exchange rate defined in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark, and Yen," IMF Working Papers 1995/055, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1995/055
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    Cited by:

    1. Olatunji A. Shobande & Oladimeji T. Shodipe & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Global Shocks Alert and Monetary Policy Responses," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/066, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
    3. Olatunji Abdul Shobande & Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe, 2019. "Remittances and Real Exchange Rate: Latest Evidence from Cochrane Orcutt Econometric Model," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 166-172, June.
    4. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Selahattin Dibooglu & Faik Koray, 2001. "The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 123-143, April.
    6. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Une analyse économétrique des sources de fluctuations du taux de change réel dans trois pays en développement. Le cas du Maroc, des Philippines et de l'Uruguay," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(6), pages 1421-1453.
    7. de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.
    8. Dionysios Chionis, 2002. "The Hysteretic Effects on the Real Exchange Rates," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 451-463.
    9. Muhammad Naveed TAHIR & Faran ALI & Dawood MAMOON, 2016. "Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime for Economic Structure of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, EconSciences Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 629-641, December.
    10. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    11. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Amina Lahrèche‐Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, February.
    12. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.

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