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What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?

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Abstract

This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive overview of the recent literature on the economics of real exchange rates. In particular, the paper attempts to provide answers to the following questions: to what extent are real exchange rates mean reverting and how may the degree of observed mean reversion be explained?; do real exchange rates have a business cycle component and, in particular, are they related to real interest differentials?; how important are real, relative to nominal shocks, in driving real exchange rates?; is the systematic component of the real exchange rate related to factors such as productivity, net foreign asset accumulation, national savings imbalances and terms of trade effects?

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:28
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:29992b6d-06bc-47e0-ac8e-a1defba6efa8/wp28_tcm16-6095.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katie Farrant & Gert Peersman, 2005. "Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence," Bank of England working papers 269, Bank of England.
    2. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Staff Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
    3. Mark W Lewis & Aurelie Martin & Gabriel Di Bella, 2007. "Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/201, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    5. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2014. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 242-256.
    6. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    7. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
    8. Jerome L. Stein, 2001. "The Equilibrium Value of the Euro/$ US Exchange Rate: An Evaluation of Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 525, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Robust Estimations Of Equilibrium Exchange Rates Within The G20: A Panel Beer Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 608-633, November.
    10. Stazka, Agnieszka, 2008. "International parity relations between Poland and Germany: a cointegrated VAR approach," MPRA Paper 24057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
    12. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    13. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    14. Balázs Égert, 2009. "Dutch Disease in Former Soviet Union: Witch-Hunting," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0380, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    15. Sideris, Dimitrios, 2006. "Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-154, April.
    16. Ronald Macdonald, 1999. "Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark and Yen," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 5-29, February.
    17. Skorepa, Michal & Komarek, Lubos, 2015. "Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 654-674.
    18. René Lalonde & Patrick Sabourin, 2003. "Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain," Staff Working Papers 03-3, Bank of Canada.
    19. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    20. Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
    21. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. T.M. Andersen & N.C. Beier, 1999. "Persistent Terms of Trade Effects of Nominal Shocks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 31, Netherlands Central Bank.
    23. De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    24. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    25. Alexius, Annika, 2000. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series 117, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rates; Mean Reversion.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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