IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/onb/oenbwp/28.html

What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?

Author

Abstract

This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive overview of the recent literature on the economics of real exchange rates. In particular, the paper attempts to provide answers to the following questions: to what extent are real exchange rates mean reverting and how may the degree of observed mean reversion be explained?; do real exchange rates have a business cycle component and, in particular, are they related to real interest differentials?; how important are real, relative to nominal shocks, in driving real exchange rates?; is the systematic component of the real exchange rate related to factors such as productivity, net foreign asset accumulation, national savings imbalances and terms of trade effects?

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:29992b6d-06bc-47e0-ac8e-a1defba6efa8/wp28_tcm16-6095.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Céline Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Staff Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    3. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
    4. Jerome L. Stein, 2001. "The Equilibrium Value of the Euro/$ US Exchange Rate: An Evaluation of Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 525, CESifo.
    5. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Robust Estimations Of Equilibrium Exchange Rates Within The G20: A Panel Beer Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 608-633, November.
    6. Stazka, Agnieszka, 2008. "International parity relations between Poland and Germany: a cointegrated VAR approach," MPRA Paper 24057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mr. Mark W Lewis & Ms. Aurelie Martin & Gabriel Di Bella, 2007. "Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/201, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    9. Sideris, Dimitrios, 2006. "Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-154, April.
    10. Skorepa, Michal & Komarek, Lubos, 2015. "Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 654-674.
    11. René Lalonde & Patrick Sabourin, 2003. "Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain," Staff Working Papers 03-3, Bank of Canada.
    12. Ronald Macdonald, 1999. "Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark and Yen," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 5-29, February.
    13. Alexius, Annika, 2000. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series 117, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    16. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2014. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 242-256.
    17. Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
    18. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    19. Balázs Égert, 2009. "Dutch Disease in Former Soviet Union: Witch-Hunting," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0380, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
    21. Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
    22. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    24. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nalewaik, Jeremy & Pinto, Eugénio, 2015. "The response of capital goods shipments to demand over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 62-80.
    4. Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Monetary targeting and inflation: 1976-1984," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 5-16.
    5. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
    6. Brian Aitken, 1998. "Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(2), pages 173-184, April.
    7. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
    8. Anoop S. KUMAR & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Efficiency, non-linearity and chaos: evidences from BRICS foreign exchange markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 103-118, Spring.
    9. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    10. Renu Kohli, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Stationarity in Managed Floats: Evidence from India," International Finance 0405011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
    12. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    13. William A. Brock & Blake LeBaron, 1990. "Liquidity Constraints in Production-Based Asset-Pricing Models," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 231-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    15. Andreas Graflund, 2000. "A Bayes Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1363, Econometric Society.
    16. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Expectations, self-fulfilling prophecies and the business cycle," Working Papers hal-03923946, HAL.
    17. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    18. João Sousa Andrade, 2004. "Régimes Monétaires et Théorie Quantitative du Produit Nominal au Portugal (1854 1998)," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 20, pages 63-88, December.
    19. Kaehler, Jürgen & Marnet, Volker, 1993. "Markov-switching models for exchange-rate dynamics and the pricing of foreign-currency options," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-03, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Wang, Yuming & Ma, Jinpeng, 2014. "Excess volatility and the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-16.
    21. Stephen Millard & Andrew Scott & Marianne Sensier, 1999. "Business cycles and the labour market can theory fit the facts?," Bank of England working papers 93, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Markus Knell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.