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The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case

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  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak

Abstract

In this paper the random walk hypothesis is tested for a set of daily Brazilian stock data given by the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA) in the period of 1986-1998. A rolling variance ratio test for different investment horizons was conducted, and it is concluded that prior to 1994 the random walk hypothesis is rejected but after that it cannot be rejected. Institutionally maturing markets, increasing liquidity and the openness of Brazilian markets for international capital can explain this increase of efficiency of the Brazilian stock market. An error-correction model is used to explain the relationship between the IBOVESPA and foreign portfolio inflows. Evidence suggests that the release of foreign capital control is one of the main determinants of increased efficiency in the Brazilian equity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:5:p:369-378
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100210134550
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1998. "Do exchange rates follow a random walk process in Middle Eastern countries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 339-344, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Mensi, Walid & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Examining the efficiency and interdependence of US credit and stock markets through MF-DFA and MF-DXA approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 351-363.
    2. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:102-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2009. "Deregulation and liberalization of the Chinese stock market and the improvement of market efficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 843-857, August.
    5. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:265-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Regis Augusto Ely, 2011. "Returns Predictability and Stock Market Efficiency in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 571-584.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2014. "New evidence from the random walk hypothesis for BRICS stock indices: a wavelet unit root test approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-41.
    8. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2016. "The Relative Predictability of Stock Markets in the Americas," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 131-142, April.
    9. Luciana Reis & Roberto Meurer & Sergio Da Silva, 2010. "Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(17), pages 1351-1361.
    10. Todea, Alexandru & Pleşoianu, Anita, 2013. "The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
    11. Jay Squalli, 2006. "A non-parametric assessment of weak-form efficiency in the UAE financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1365-1373.
    12. Daniel Cajueiro & Benjamin Tabak, 2006. "The long-range dependence phenomena in asset returns: the Chinese case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 131-133.

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