IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bog/wpaper/19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Sideris

    () (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and University of Ioannina, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The present paper tests for the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for the three key currencies of the recent floating exchange rate period, the US dollar, the German mark and the Japanese yen. The novelty of the paper is that the validity of the PPP conditions relating the economies of the US, Germany and Japan is tested in a system framework, which allows for possible interactions in the determination of the exchange rates and the prices of the three economies. Some form of causality among the variables of the system is also assessed empirically with the aid of weak exogeneity tests. The results illustrate the importance of the multilateral testing. Positive evidence for PPP is found: long-run PPP is supported for the US and Germany but also for the US and Japan, in contrast to evidence of earlier empirical studies. In addition, causality is found running from the US prices to the exchange rates and German and Japanese prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper200419.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Patel, Jayendu, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 367-379, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    4. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
    5. Papell, David H. & Theodoridis, Hristos, 1998. "Increasing evidence of purchasing power parity over the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 41-50, February.
    6. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 131-137, August.
    7. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
    9. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    10. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2001. "Long memory and nonlinear mean reversion in Japanese yen-based real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 115-132, February.
    13. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    15. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2005. "Changes in financial structure and asset price substitutability: A test of the bank lending channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 879-904, September.
    16. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
    17. Tamim Bayoumi & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-5.
    18. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    19. Koedijk, Kees G. & Schotman, Peter C. & Van Dijk, Mathijs A., 1998. "The re-emergence of PPP in the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 51-61, February.
    20. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    21. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing power parity : Another look at the long-run data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 339-344, April.
    22. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-695, November.
    23. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
    24. Papazoglou, Christos & Pentecost, Eric J., 2004. "The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 547-561, September.
    25. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2004. "Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 559-586, September.
    26. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
    27. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2003. "Modelling Economic Time Series in the Presence of Variance Non-Stationarity: A Practical Approach," Working Papers 07, Bank of Greece.
    28. Sideris, D., 1997. "Multilateral Versus Bilateral Testing for Long Run Purchasing Power Parity: A Cointegration Analysis for the Greek Drachma," Economics Working Papers eco97/18, European University Institute.
    29. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November.
    30. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
    31. Salehizadeh, Mehdi & Taylor, Robert, 1999. "A test of purchasing power parity for emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 183-193, April.
    32. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
    33. Cuddington, John T. & Liang, Hong, 2000. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 753-757, October.
    34. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    35. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
    36. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    37. Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_97-2, July.
    38. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 489-506, August.
    39. Nicos C. Kamberoglou & Elias Liapis & George T. Simigiannis & Panagiota Tzamourani, 2004. "Cost Efficiency in Greek Banking," Working Papers 09, Bank of Greece.
    40. Cheng, Benjamin S., 1999. "Beyond the purchasing power parity: testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 911-924, December.
    41. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    42. Sophia Lazaretou, 2005. "Greek Monetary Economics in Retrospect: The Adventures of the Drachma," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(3), pages 331-370, November.
    43. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
    44. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, August.
    45. Thanasis N. Christodoulopoulos & Ioulia Grigoratou, 2003. "The Effect of Dynamic Hedging of Options Positions on Intermediate-Maturity Interest Rates," Working Papers 08, Bank of Greece.
    46. Zhenhui Xu, 1999. "The exchange rate and long-run price movements in the US and Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 227-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    2. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 359-377, December.
    3. Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece.
    4. Cushman, David O., 2008. "Long-run PPP in a system context: No favorable evidence after all for the U.S., Germany, and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 413-424, December.
    5. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
    6. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
    7. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioannis G. Asimakopoulos & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2005. "The effect of merger and acquisition announcement on Greek bank stock returns," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 24, pages 27-44, January.
    8. Theodore Mitrakos & Stauros Zografakis, 2005. "The redistributional impact of inflation in Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 24, pages 45-82, January.
    9. Heather D. Gibson, 2005. "Greek Banking Profitability: recent developments," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 24, pages 7-25, January.
    10. Karoglou, Michail & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Purchasing power parity and structural instability in the US/UK exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 958-972.
    11. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe's Hard Fix: The Euro Area," Working Papers 39, Bank of Greece.
    12. Ioannis Theodosiou & Konstantinos Pouliakas, 2005. "Socio-economic differences in the job satisfaction of high-paid and low-paid workers in Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 24, pages 83-115, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; PPP; cointegration; causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.