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The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation

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  • Papazoglou, Christos
  • Pentecost, Eric J.

Abstract

This paper develops a model of a representative transition economy to explain the stylised facts of output declines and real exchange rate appreciation in the early stages of transformation. These facts can be explained by supply-side shocks, interest rate liberalisation or a reduction in core inflation. The policy implication is that price liberalisation in advance of financial liberalization and structural reform, including widespread privatisation of the production process, necessarily results in some temporary loss of output.
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Suggested Citation

  • Papazoglou, Christos & Pentecost, Eric J., 2004. "The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 547-561, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:26:y:2004:i:3:p:547-561
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1991. "From Centrally-Planned to Market Economies: The Road from CPE to PCPE," NBER Working Papers 3698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    3. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 185-202, September.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    5. Jacob A. Frenkel & Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1982. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Overshooting Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Joannes Mongardini & Johannes Mueller, 2000. "Ratchet Effects in Currency Substitution: An Application to the Kyrgyz Republic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-3.
    7. Ashok Kumar Lahiri, 1991. "Money and Inflation in Yugoslavia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 751-788, December.
    8. Eduardo Borensztein & Dimitri G. Demekas & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of the Output Declines in Three Eastern European Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moore, Tomoe & Pentecost, Eric J., 2006. "An investigation into the sources of fluctuation in real and nominal wage rates in eight EU countries: A structural VAR approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 357-376, June.
    2. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
    3. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 432-444, January.
    4. Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2004. "Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece," Working Papers 14, Bank of Greece.
    5. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
    6. Christos Papazoglou, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Output Contraction under Transition," Working Papers 29, Bank of Greece.
    7. Sideris, Dimitrios, 2006. "Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-154, April.
    8. repec:pal:easeco:v:43:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_eej.2015.45 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece.
    10. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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