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Currency Substitution, Portfolio Diversification and Money Demand

  • Miguel Lebre de Freitas

The paper explores the implications of means of payment substitutability and capital mobility on the properties of the money demand, using the Thomas (1985) stochastic dynamic optimising model, where the specific role of money is explicitly accounted for. Extending the model to a case in which the consumer has no access to bonds denominated in foreign currency, we are able to describe the double role (means of payment and store of value) that foreign bank notes may have in countries where asset markets are illiquid. We show that means of payment substitutability opens a channel through which portfolio decisions influence the demand for domestic money, even if the later is dominated as store of value. Contrary to what suggested by the Portfolio Balance Theory of Currency Substitution (Cuddington, 1983), the results obtained in this paper suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of CS

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 263.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:263
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  1. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2003. "The dynamics of inflation and currency substitution in a small open economy," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 02, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro, revised Aug 2003.
  2. Mizen, Paul & Pentecost, Eric J, 1994. "Evaluating the Empirical Evidence for Currency Substitution: A Case Study of the Demand for Sterling in Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1057-69, September.
  3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Bundt, Thomas P., 1990. "Currency substitution and monetary autonomy: the foreign demand for US demand deposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-334, September.
  4. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
  5. Akcay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Karasulu, Meral, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate instability: The Turkish case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 827-835, April.
  6. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
  7. Chang, Roberto, 1989. "Endogenous Currency Substitution, Inflationary Finance, And Welfare," Working Papers 89-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  8. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Financial Dollarisation: Evaluating The Consequences," Business School Working Papers findollarisation, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  10. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 509, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Rogers, J.H., 1990. "The Currency Substitution Hypothesis And Relative Money Demand In Mexico And Canada," Papers 7-90-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  12. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier.
  13. Pablo Guidotti & Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1992. "Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's Law in Reverse?," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 81, Universidad del CEMA.
  14. Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May.
  15. Engineer, Merwan, 2000. "Currency transactions costs and competing fiat currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-136, October.
  16. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-54, August.
  17. Joines, Douglas H., 1985. "International currency substitution and the income velocity of money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 303-316, September.
  18. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-98, August.
  19. Shouyong Shi, 1995. "Money and Prices: A Model of Search and Bargaining," Working Papers 916, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  20. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
  21. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1994. "GMM Estimates of Currency Substitution between the Canadian Dollar and the U.S. Dollar," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 792-807, November.
  22. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Ratti, Ronald A & Jeong, Byung Woo, 1994. "Variation in the real exchange rate as a source of currency substitution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 537-550, October.
  24. Thomas, Lee R, 1985. "Portfolio Theory and Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 347-57, August.
  25. Vegh, Carlos A., 1989. "The optimal inflation tax in the presence of currency substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 139-146, July.
  26. Sturzenegger, Federico, 1997. "Understanding the welfare implications of currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 391-416.
  27. Smith, Constance E, 1995. "Substitution, Income, and Intertemporal Effects in Currency-Substitution Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-59, February.
  28. Miles, Marc A, 1978. "Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 428-36, June.
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