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Financial Dollarization And Systemicrisks: New Empirical Evidence

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  • FABRICIO DE ASSIS CAMPOS VIEIRA
  • MÁRCIO HOLLAND
  • MARCO FLÁVIO DA CUNHA RESENDE

Abstract

This paper explores the persistence of financial dollarization in a group of 79 economies with different levels of development. Our main hypothesis is that a high level of domestic debt combined with default risk explains this persistence, even after a decline in inflation rates. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a panel data analysis, our results show that inflation risks caused by increasing probability of default account for financial dollarization more than inflation rate itself. After the decrease in inflation rates, the foreign currency-denominated deposits remain large because of the high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly in speculative-grade economies. High public indebtedness leads to expectations of default. Dollarization is a rational response to the future inflation associated with investors' expectations of default observed in highly indebted economies.
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  • Fabricio De Assis Campos Vieira & Márcio Holland & Marco Flávio Da Cunha Resende, 2014. "Financial Dollarization And Systemicrisks: New Empirical Evidence," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2012:040
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    2. Ajide, Kazeem B. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Dollarization and the “unbundling” of globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 398-409.
    3. Simplice Asongu & Ibrahim Raheem & Venessa Tchamyou, 2018. "Information asymmetry and financial dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 231-249, June.
    4. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    5. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Kazeem B. Ajide & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Simplice A. Asongu, 2018. "Dollarization and the “Unbundling†of Globalization in sub-Saharan Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 18/034, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    7. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Institutions and financial dollarization: Indirect effects based on a policy experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 405-410.
    8. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    9. Márcio Holland, 2014. "Managing Capital Inflows in Brazil," MIT Press Book Chapters, in: What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy After the Crisis, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 289-306, The MIT Press.
    10. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    11. Kishor, Narayan K. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "What Is Driving Financial Dollarization In Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 816-835, June.
    12. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2016. "Dollarization, liquidity and performance: Evidence from Turkish banking," MPRA Paper 72812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

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    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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