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Financial Dollarization And Systemicrisks: New Empirical Evidence

  • FABRICIO DE ASSIS CAMPOS VIEIRA
  • MÁRCIO HOLLAND
  • MARCO FLÁVIO DA CUNHA RESENDE

This paper explores the persistence of financial dollarization in a group of 79 economies with different levels of development. Our main hypothesis is that a high level of domestic debt combined with default risk explains this persistence, even after a decline in inflation rates. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a panel data analysis, our results show that inflation risks caused by increasing probability of default account for financial dollarization more than inflation rate itself. After the decrease in inflation rates, the foreign currency-denominated deposits remain large because of the high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly in speculative-grade economies. High public indebtedness leads to expectations of default. Dollarization is a rational response to the future inflation associated with investors' expectations of default observed in highly indebted economies.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 040.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2012:040
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