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Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe Revisited

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Abstract

This short study builds on earlier work by Égert, Backé and Zumer that analyzes data up to the end of 2004 and presents updated results on the deviations of private sector credit-to-GDP levels from their estimated equilibrium levels in the ten new Central, Eastern and Southeastern European EU Member States and in Croatia. The study uses new data on lending and its determinants until end-2006, which show that the levels of private sector credit to GDP continued to catch up with their long-run equilibrium levels in 2005 and 2006. Moreover, in a few countries, credit levels have already become fairly elevated relative to the underlying fundamentals. The paper discusses implications for policymaking in European emerging economies on the basis of these developments, focusing on the contributions the most important policy domains can make to managing dynamic financial sector deepening and its implications for macroeconomic developments.

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  • Peter Backé & Balázs Égert & Zoltan Walko, 2007. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe Revisited," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 69-77.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2007:i:2:b:2
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:9a6bbc6a-c6e5-4604-a7a8-d478ca5cdb61/feei_2007_2_backe_egert_walko_tcm16-79072.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Pistor, Katharina, 2010. "Into the Void: Governing Finance in Central and Eastern Europe," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Geršl, Adam & Jašová, Martina, 2014. "Measures to tame credit growth: Are they effective?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 7-25.
    3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    4. repec:eee:ecofin:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:49-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    6. Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen & Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America; Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 13/106, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.
    8. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    9. Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sulla, Olga, 2013. "El crecimiento del crédito en América Latina: ¿Desarrollo financiero o boom crediticio?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 51-80.

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