Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?
The specialists paid a special attention to credit growth in the transitions countries due to its sharp increase during the last years. However, once the financial crisis started in 2008, the credit activity evolution reversed. Consequently, forecasting the credit trend has become a subject of interest in the context of the present financial and economic conditions, because the credit market blockage has a negative impact on economic activity revival and leads to the amplification of the uncertainty on financial markets. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the recent credit developments in Romania and to predict their future evolution. Based on the credit growth rate endogenous factors and using a stochastic simulation econometric model, we demonstrate that this economy experiences a passage from a credit boom to a severe credit crunch. The forecasting exercise results show a credit activity contraction up to the end of 2009, demolishing the expectations related to a near economic recoVery in Romania.
Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bd.Expozitiei 1B, Bucuresti, Sector 1, Etaj 3, 012101|
Web page: http://www.rau.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/215, International Monetary Fund.
- Clarke, George & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Sanchez, Susana M., 2001. "Foreign bank entry - experience, implications for developing countries, and agenda for further research," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2698, The World Bank.
- Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Post-Print halshs-00384566, HAL.
- Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
- Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/268, International Monetary Fund.
- Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2007. "Mesure de la vulnérabilité du secteur bancaire luxembourgeois," BCL working papers 24, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Ralph de Haas & Iman van Lelyveld, 2003.
"Foreign Banks and Credit Stability in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Analysis,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
109, Netherlands Central Bank.
- de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2006. "Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1927-1952, July.
- Peter Backé & Balázs Égert & Zoltan Walko, 2007. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe Revisited," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 69-77.
- Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
- Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels, 2004. "The short-term effects of foreign bank entry on domestic bank behaviour: Does economic development matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 553-568, March.
- Sangkyun Park, 1993. "The determinants of consumer installment credit," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 23-38.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rau:journl:v:5:y:2010:i:1:p:62-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alex Tabusca)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.