Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth
In this work, we try to analyze the recent credit development in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and estimate the credit-to-GDP ratio equilibrium level using filtering methods and dynamic panel estimations. Our estimation findings corroborate previous fears about the rapid credit growth in the CEECs. Indeed, in many cases the credit expansion exceeds the level justified by their fundamentals or financial development. Under normal conditions, this rapid growth and even ''overshooting'' of banking credit could be considered as an adjustment to its long-term equilibrium level. However, in the actual crisis situation, this excessive credit growth can reinforce other existing disequilibria and lead to an increase in the financial vulnerability of these countries.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Working Paper GATE 2009-12. 2009|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00384566|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006.
"Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?,"
Working Paper Series
0687, European Central Bank.
- Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
NBER Working Papers
8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999.
"The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 7410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- FrÃ©dÃ©ric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters, in: Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14 Edward Elgar.
- Coudert, V. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "La croissance des crédits dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale est-elle excessive ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 172, pages 39-67.
- Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005.
"Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
- Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00384566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.